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Onside kick recovery rate experiment results


bruddog

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I know a some people aren't ondiscord or don't follow my twitter account. Over the weekend I hacked the original rom to have the COM kick onsides kicks to each other over and over anad recorded the results in sram, While these results may be slightly different to man mode because of the man kicker i think it would be pretty close. I hacked the game so the COM would always kick at the same bar length. Here are the results. These aren't meant to be absolute numbers but rather a baseline. Obviously conditions/teams involved will make a difference. I ran this test in season mode and it got thru about 3.5 weeks worth of season games for about 5000 total kicks per run. 

 

onsides_kicks_reults.thumb.png.afc58f09684d0489dd8eb62500acb182.png

 

 

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so, P2 actually recovered some of them?  but wait....

 

since you ran it in season mode, COM JUICE should distort the data.

 

so, maybe run these tests in preseason, or SET the juice to all 0's to make sure it doesn't change the "normal" outcome.

 

of course, I could be wrong and COM v COM doesn't use juice at all, but I am thinking it does.

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Good idea. Like i said its rough guideline. 

 

The juice would probably be minor the first few weeks. Which is all i ran it for. 

 

I fixed the issue of the P2 ball position right after the kicker kicks it to match p1 and that drastically changed p2 odds on no bar....improved recovery to about 3% vs 0.5%. So its a big part of the problem but not all. 

 

I think the small edge p1 may have in recovering a ball is the other main culprit. 

 

 

 

 

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  • 11 months later...

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