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hoigaard

Tecmo XII Vegas Bets

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Here is a mid-week look at (fake/theoretical) bets Vegas is taking for Tecmo XII. As a reminder and boring disclaimer: These are for entertainment purposes only, blah blah blah. If  we didn’t mention someone as part of a category, Vegas apologizes (A lot of names to go through).

 

Tecmo XI Champion’s State:
Indiana/Michigan/Ohio/IL 2:1
Wisconsin 5:1
States that touch an Ocean (for clarity- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coastal_states): 12:1
Field: 15:1

(For the first time since Vegas opened up bets on Tecmo many years ago, Wisconsin is NOT the favorite to hoist the trophy. With defending Champion Psycho and Tecmo X Champ (who technically never "lost" his crown, either) Regulator leading the charge, this group is loaded. Throw in Matt M (Ind), O'Toole/O'Dell (MI), Mort (IL) and whatever Ohio contingency shows up, the depth here is stronger than it ever has been, even without the Vogt clan. Wisconsin's drop is more aligned with the rise of the other group. Wisconsin is still incredibly formidable, with Chet always at the top of the list, followed by Coconuts (Tecmo XI runner up), Josh H, Orenga, Jeff B, Lucas S, Rico R, Kevin M and Troy H all claiming multiple deep runs in past years. There may be some good value in the Coastal States cluster, though. You get Manyo, Gripsmoke and Bruddog, three west coast guys who are due for a string of big TecmoMadison wins. Arncoem, Louis B, DT, Brian R and many more I'm surely forgetting are also included in this group. The Field bet also has some value. Luke C, Matty D, possibly Gats, 8-Bit, Gerald S, Ashman, Seth B and Noonan are all capable of beating any player in tournament. You also get any international entries, so that's fun.)

 

Will the Winner of Tecmo X be a Repeat Champion?
No +600
Yes -400

(Despite last year featuring a first time winner, Regulator was not in the field. He's back this year and joins previous winners Psycho, Chet, Josh H, Mort, and Kevin M as former champions hoping to claim the last title. This is only a list of 6 guys vs 260+, but betting against this list takes some guts.)

 

0.5 Groups with NEITHER the #1 AND #2 Seed advancing:
Over +1000
Under -800

(Interesting value bet here. We've seen as the years have gone on the field has clearly started to level out, with more unknowns able to show up and win immediately, and some top-tier guys capable of early exits. However, many of those results come in bracket play. Dumpster fires in group play are hard to come by. A good number of 2 seeds fall each year, and we've definitely seen some 1's fail to make it out. But would you bet on a group where both the 1 and 2 fail? If you look at Bruddog's metrics, the demarcation between (at least) the #1 and the rest of the groups is noticeable. Based on the metrics, your *best* chance of hitting this bet based on lack of distance between top and the rest of the group would appear to be in Group 23. Behind that group, the numbers suggest you could see chaos in 8, 21, and 29.)

 

1.5 Group Runners-Up in the Elite 8:
Over +400
Under -350

(Prior to last year, Elite 8 members under this tourney format had gone 96-0 prior to the Elite 8. Psycho finally broke through last year and crashed the party as a group runner-up and won the whole damn thing. With this year's number, do you think the field has leveled off enough that we could see TWO runners-up make the Elite 8? History strongly says "no," but all it takes is for a strong 1-seed to drop a game in group play but make it out and all of a sudden you've got an elite player coming from that #2 line, see: Psycho 2015.)

 

Who Goes Further in Tecmo XII?

Mort or Lou

(This bet holds a lot of intrigue. In Tecmo X and XI, Lou out-performed Mort, reaching the 32 and Sweet 16 respectively. Prior to those performances, Mort had been the monster of the two brothers. So for this bet, do you think recent history holds and Lou continues to rise (rumors continue to swirl that Mort rarely touches the game these days) ... Or does Mort find that extra gear he has had in past years in an attempt to go out on the highest possible note in Madison Tecmo play?)

 

In the Championship-Clinching Game, Point Spread:
Winner -7.5

(In clinching games of Tecmo VIII-XI, the winner won by 12, 11, 10, and 14 points. In games that you assume would be tight because it's the best two players in the world on that day, it appeared that fatigue may have come into play. Last year, however, Psycho won a tight game by just 3 pts over Coconuts. So Vegas puts the number right at the sweet spot. Do you think the clinching game is a 2-score deficit, or do we go out with a classic all-time close game to finish out the Madison run?)

 

0.5 Missed/Blocked Extra Points in Tourney Play:
Over +200
Under -175

(Interesting bet. Extra Points are for the most part automatic, but let’s say there are, what, 486ish games in the tournament? No idea on the average # of TDs scored each game, but let’s be conservative and say 4.  That’s 1,944 extra point attempts on the day. Will any be blocked? As guys consume more alcohol and get sloppy….)

 

Largest Beatdown:
+/-59.5 Pts

(With some quick research help from Bruddog, it appears at least on a cursory glance at past results that Coconuts’ 66-0 win to open play last year is one of, if not the, largest margins of victory we’ve seen. This bet asks if anyone will come within a TD of hitting that number this year. Such a huge number to hit vs a human opponent.)

 

Will any of the Tourney Organizers shed a tear at any point from 10am Saturday until the Plaza closes?
Yes +650
No -750

(While our organizers have shown true professionalism through all 12 tournaments, knowing that this is the finale do you think they get a little misty at any point? This might be a fun bet to place on Yes and then spend the day really trying to lay it on thick about this being over when you talk to them throughout the day)

 

What Will be the Ratio of Musky Scents at Wafting in the Badger Bowl at 9pm?
(Beer/Balls/Breath)
A) 40/30/30
B) 30/40/30
C) 30/30/40
D) 100/100/100
E) Incalculable

 

Who Will Be the Most Famous Celebrity to Make an Appearance?
Barry Sanders +10,000
Markie Post +9,000
Chris Jacke +8,000
Jackie Harris +5,000
Jackie Joyner-Kersee +2,500
Some Guy Who Looks Like Mort +300
No Celebrities -6,000

(For the sake of the bet, any person who is not Barry Sanders, Chris Jacke, Jackie Harris, Jackie Joyner-Kersee or Some Guy Who Looks Like Mort will be labeled as “No Celebrity.” So if Aaron Rodgers shows up, too bad, he’s not a celebrity.)

 

Of the 268 Competitors…
Over/Under 250 with facial hair

(Duh)
 

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15 minutes ago, hoigaard said:

What Will be the Ratio of Musky Scents at Wafting in the Badger Bowl at 9pm?
(Beer/Balls/Breath)
A) 40/30/30
B) 30/40/30
C) 30/30/40
D) 100/100/100
E) Incalculable

 

Something seems chronically unrepresented in these scent ratios

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25 minutes ago, hoigaard said:

0.5 Groups with NEITHER the #1 AND #2 Seed advancing:
Over +1000
Under -800

(Interesting value bet here. We've seen as the years have gone on the field has clearly started to level out, with more unknowns able to show up and win immediately, and some top-tier guys capable of early exits. However, many of those results come in bracket play. Dumpster fires in group play are hard to come by. A good number of 2 seeds fall each year, and we've definitely seen some 1's fail to make it out. But would you bet on a group where both the 1 and 2 fail? If you look at Bruddog's metrics, the demarcation between (at least) the #1 and the rest of the groups is noticeable. Based on the metrics, your *best* chance of hitting this bet based on lack of distance between top and the rest of the group would appear to be in Group 23. Behind that group, the numbers suggest you could see chaos in 8, 21, and 29.)

 

1.5 Group Runners-Up in the Elite 8:
Over +400
Under -350

(Prior to last year, Elite 8 members under this tourney format had gone 96-0 prior to the Elite 8. Psycho finally broke through last year and crashed the party as a group runner-up and won the whole damn thing. With this year's number, do you think the field has leveled off enough that we could see TWO runners-up make the Elite 8? History strongly says "no," but all it takes is for a strong 1-seed to drop a game in group play but make it out and all of a sudden you've got an elite player coming from that #2 line, see: Psycho 2015.)

I'll put all my money on OVER the .5, and under the group runners up.  I just hope my group (Group 29) isn't one of them.  Good write up. 

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16 minutes ago, Knobbe said:

 

Something seems chronically unrepresented in these scent ratios

 

If you're referring to BO, Vegas has grouped that in the "Balls" category.

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14 minutes ago, hoigaard said:

 

If you're referring to BO, Vegas has grouped that in the "Balls" category.

 

Weed. My tourney smelled like a Phish concert at times.

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1 hour ago, hoigaard said:

Tecmo XI Champion’s State:
Indiana/Michigan/Ohio/IL 2:1
Wisconsin 5:1
States that touch an Ocean (for clarity- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coastal_states): 12:1
Field: 15:1

(For the first time since Vegas opened up bets on Tecmo many years ago, Wisconsin is NOT the favorite to hoist the trophy. With defending Champion Psycho and Tecmo X Champ (who technically never "lost" his crown, either) Regulator leading the charge, this group is loaded. Throw in Matt M (Ind), O'Toole/O'Dell (MI), Mort (IL) and whatever Ohio contingency shows up, the depth here is stronger than it ever has been, even without the Vogt clan. Wisconsin's drop is more aligned with the rise of the other group. Wisconsin is still incredibly formidable, with Chet always at the top of the list, followed by Coconuts (Tecmo XI runner up), Josh H, Orenga, Jeff B, Lucas S, Rico R, Kevin M and Troy H all claiming multiple deep runs in past years. There may be some good value in the Coastal States cluster, though. You get Manyo, Gripsmoke and Bruddog, three west coast guys who are due for a string of big TecmoMadison wins. Arncoem, Louis B, DT, Brian R and many more I'm surely forgetting are also included in this group. The Field bet also has some value. Luke C, Matty D, possibly Gats, 8-Bit, Gerald S, Ashman, Seth B and Noonan are all capable of beating any player in tournament. You also get any international entries, so that's fun.)

 

0.5 Groups with NEITHER the #1 AND #2 Seed advancing:
Over +1000
Under -800

(Interesting value bet here. We've seen as the years have gone on the field has clearly started to level out, with more unknowns able to show up and win immediately, and some top-tier guys capable of early exits. However, many of those results come in bracket play. Dumpster fires in group play are hard to come by. A good number of 2 seeds fall each year, and we've definitely seen some 1's fail to make it out. But would you bet on a group where both the 1 and 2 fail? If you look at Bruddog's metrics, the demarcation between (at least) the #1 and the rest of the groups is noticeable. Based on the metrics, your *best* chance of hitting this bet based on lack of distance between top and the rest of the group would appear to be in Group 23. Behind that group, the numbers suggest you could see chaos in 8, 21, and 29.)
 

 

That right there is bulletin board material for motivation. Sweet 16 or Bust for me this year. 

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39 minutes ago, kamphuna8 said:

Lincoln will probably be the next Madison in terms of destination Tourneys for PNWers on account of this...

 

1 hour ago, hoigaard said:

Here is a mid-week look at (fake/theoretical) bets Vegas is taking for Tecmo XII. As a reminder and boring disclaimer: These are for entertainment purposes only, blah blah blah. If  we didn’t mention someone as part of a category, Vegas apologizes (A lot of names to go through).

 

Tecmo XI Champion’s State:
Indiana/Michigan/Ohio/IL 2:1
Wisconsin 5:1
States that touch an Ocean (for clarity- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coastal_states): 12:1
Field: 15:1

(For the first time since Vegas opened up bets on Tecmo many years ago, Wisconsin is NOT the favorite to hoist the trophy. With defending Champion Psycho and Tecmo X Champ (who technically never "lost" his crown, either) Regulator leading the charge, this group is loaded. Throw in Matt M (Ind), O'Toole/O'Dell (MI), Mort (IL) and whatever Ohio contingency shows up, the depth here is stronger than it ever has been, even without the Vogt clan. Wisconsin's drop is more aligned with the rise of the other group. Wisconsin is still incredibly formidable, with Chet always at the top of the list, followed by Coconuts (Tecmo XI runner up), Josh H, Orenga, Jeff B, Lucas S, Rico R, Kevin M and Troy H all claiming multiple deep runs in past years. There may be some good value in the Coastal States cluster, though. You get Manyo, Gripsmoke and Bruddog, three west coast guys who are due for a string of big TecmoMadison wins. Arncoem, Louis B, DT, Brian R and many more I'm surely forgetting are also included in this group. The Field bet also has some value. Luke C, Matty D, possibly Gats, 8-Bit, Gerald S, Ashman, Seth B and Noonan are all capable of beating any player in tournament. You also get any international entries, so that's fun.)

 

 

 

I've been doing a case study in the recent months on the amount of alcohol consumed versus an increase/decrease in skill displayed. Not only do I know the sweet spot of my tolerance, but I've also increased the amount I can drink and still be functional.

 

Give me IN/MI/OH/IL

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2 hours ago, hoigaard said:

0.5 Missed/Blocked Extra Points in Tourney Play:
Over +200
Under -175

(Interesting bet. Extra Points are for the most part automatic, but let’s say there are, what, 486ish games in the tournament? No idea on the average # of TDs scored each game, but let’s be conservative and say 4.  That’s 1,944 extra point attempts on the day. Will any be blocked? As guys consume more alcohol and get sloppy….)

Give me the OVER in a runaway!

 

Great read Ryan!

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27 minutes ago, Super Duper said:

Great work Ryan. What does your Vegas guy say about an over/under on the number of times "Garbage" is collectively said? I would peg it at around 15,953.5

 

Considering that is synonymous with @averagetsbplayer I would say it is at least 16k.

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2 minutes ago, davefmurray said:

 

Considering that is synonymous with @averagetsbplayer I would say it is at least 16k.

Luke C. once informed Orenga that "the garbage man doesn't come on Saturdays" at a Tomczak Bowl a few years ago.  

 

And where is that Dillon Region preview?  Must be a doozy! ;)

Edited by moulds33

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14 minutes ago, hoigaard said:

This thread has turned from gambling forum to marijuana dispensary. If someone can seamlessly pull prostitution into the mix we'll hit the Golden Triangle.

 

Badger Road is not far off from Badger Bowl - so there is a decent chance of this.

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If we were at the Super 8 East, I probably could oblige. Saw one last year coming back from the bar. Tight miniskirt, no jacket, barely something that would qualify as a shirt, and high heels coming out of a hotel room at 3am. One would assume..

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1 hour ago, Coconuts said:

If we were at the Super 8 East, I probably could oblige. Saw one last year coming back from the bar. Tight miniskirt, no jacket, barely something that would qualify as a shirt, and high heels coming out of a hotel room at 3am. One would assume..

 

You are classifying wrong. That was a Mort groupie.

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3 hours ago, hoigaard said:

This thread has turned from gambling forum to marijuana dispensary. If someone can seamlessly pull prostitution into the mix we'll hit the Golden Triangle.

 

Tecmo tournament, loser has to jerk off the winner.

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11 hours ago, hoigaard said:

Largest Beatdown:
+/-59.5 Pts

(With some quick research help from Bruddog, it appears at least on a cursory glance at past results that Coconuts’ 66-0 win to open play last year is one of, if not the, largest margins of victory we’ve seen. This bet asks if anyone will come within a TD of hitting that number this year. Such a huge number to hit vs a human opponent.)

 

Reminder to everyone: the maximum point differential per game is +28. We put this rule in about 5 years ago to prevent blowouts like this. My offense hits all kinds of roadblocks, suddenly, when I'm winning by more than 35 points.

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11 hours ago, hoigaard said:

Will any of the Tourney Organizers shed a tear at any point from 10am Saturday until the Plaza closes?
Yes +650
No -750

 

If I win, I'll cry like a baby. But that will only be because of what Flo is doing to me.

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Craziest End to a Game:

Kick/INT Return for TD +400

Blocked FG Returned by Def for TD +600

Blocked FG Returned by Kicker for TD +1200

Blocked Pass in EndZone that goes out of bounds for a Safety +2000

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