SIM RUSHING somewhat deconstructed

[bruddog]

Man going through the code is like one giant mess of random number calculation after another for the sim values.  The only real way to make sense of it was to build an excel sheet.

 

Actually re-writing it and  modern language  where I could have it run through all possibilities would be the real way to do it. 

 

Cliff notes 

 

Each run skill level is worth roughly 0.5 yards of rushing average vs a skill level 7 D until you get to about skill level 11 and then it jumps up by about a yard at a time. 

 

RANGE : 5 yards per carry up to 14. 

 

Defense behaves roughly the same way but in reverse. However the SIM D table is not linear at all so you get flat spots followed by spikes. The following range is versus a skill level 7 runner. 

 

RANGE 12.5 yards per carry allowed down to 6.5

 

 

 

Detailed description

 

 

Step 1. Determine final offense value

 

The game sets up a (random number + constant) then multiplies this by the rush sim value loaded from the rush sim table. 

 

Step 2. Determine an adjustment to the defensive value based on the play call. 

 

The game actually simulates play calls for the sim game:

                             

                               1. Blitzes get the most bonus.

                               2. There is non logical difference between play calls of the same type but are different.

                               3. A play call of a different type gets the least bonus. (ie pass call vs run d)

 

The bonuses fall within a pretty large random range

 

Step 3. = Final offense adjusted value - playcall adjusted defensive value

 

You subtract the two values to get your final value

 

Step 4 = Determine the final yardage based on the final value

 

There are 6 outcome ranges depending on where the value falls. THe percentage of plays in each range is with a 7 skill player vs 7 skill defender over 4000 samples. And then

with a 14 skill run player. 

 

1. Range from  -3 to 1 yards      (14%)   (7%)

2. Range from   1  to 6 yards     (15%)   (12%)

3. Range from   4 to 12 yards    (40%)   (25%

4. Range from   7 to 25 yards    (30%)   (40%)          

5. Range from  10 to 45 yards   (1%)      (15%)

    6. Range from   10 to 100 yards (has a 6% chance to get to this range if outcome falls in range 5)  (0.03%) , (1%)  

 

The play value is randomized in the range. 

 

 

I am attaching the spreadsheet which is pretty busy as I was trying to keep track of the various steps. I could probably extract how much effect the play call's have. Nearly everything on the sheet is in decimal format. I did leave the sim rush and sim D hex values in there for reference. 

 

PCO= play call O

PCD= play call D

outcome = which range it fell into

outcome 

 

SIM_FORMULA_RUSHING.xlsx

[buck]

props

[Martin]

This is some serious insight.