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Come back from INJURY chances


bruddog
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Every player starts off as questionable. 


 


I verified in the source code the probabilities


 


 


QUESTIONABLE = 25% CHANCE OF RETURN,  ELSE MOVE TO DOUBTFUL = code= 0x03


DOUBTFUL =  50% CHANCE OF RETURN, ELSE MOVE TO PROBABLE =code= 0x02


PROBABLE = 100% CHANCE OF RETURN FROM INJURY =code= 0x01


 


 


Which if I did my math right makes for


 


 


Chance it takes exactly x weeks to return  :


 


0 weeks  = 25%


1 week = 37.5%


2 weeks = 25%


3 weeks = 12.5%


 


 


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Right after where the condition code is. Yes the max could be tweaked to something longer but there wouldn't be an easy way to make it a fixed maximum due to memory limitations. But weith probabilities you could make it VERY UNLIKELY for the injury to go beyond x weeks.


 


The following method produces some good spread of injury ranges


 


Initial injury 


 


33% chance to start at questionable


33% chance to start at doubtful


33% chance to start at probable


 


Then a 33% chance to improve to the next condition level each week


 


This give you stuff where half the injuries will be 2 weeks or less, then a smaller cluster around 3,4,5,6,7 weeks and then a few outliers beyond  at  8+ games missed.


 


 


 


Or you could do something where you had


 


5% chance to start at out for season (Would probably need to update the injured text so it could also show "OUT"


30% chance to start at questionable


55% chance to start at probable 


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How about if the probable chance of returning is set to be a static 40% before each game?  This would equal the following probabilities that a player returns BY a certain game:


before game 1 (after the injury game): 40%


by game 2: 64%


by game 3: 79%


by game 4: 87%


by game 5: 92%


by game 6: 95%


by game 7: 97%


by game 8: 98%


by game 9: 99%


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  • 1 year later...
  • 2 weeks later...
  • 1 year later...

Does anyone know where the location of the return from injury is?  I can't seem to find information on here regarding the offset location.  I'm trying to make it so the injured player always comes back the next game.  Apologize in advance if I have missed it in a commonly viewed post.

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  • 3 years later...

@bruddogHey I tested this and 0x22463 to FF looks like it makes it so they never return from injury. Is 22463 a scale?

I may have to run a "death" season in my CPU league, where when a player is injured they are out for the rest of the season. Makes backups alot more valuable :) 

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@TheRaja I don’t have the code in front of me but I’m pretty sure that is the pct chance they come back from probable

 

 

Not sure if FF is never come back or just extremely unlikely… 1/256. 
 

Examples 

1. 0x40 = 1- (64/256) = 75% chance

2. 0x80= 1 - (128/256) = 50% chance

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