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Madison, WI - 03/07/15 - Tecmo XI: Apocalipps Now


sonofpatbeach

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I think they should change it up do music parody titles. Instead of playing a movie just play the artist's library.Like "The Wind Cries Barry" or "Lawrence, Guns, and Money." I'd be down to listening to Warren Zevon while I playing Tecmo.

 

I'd be all about grooving to the 'von throughout the tournament (may he rest in peace). Of course, we'd have to play his last single before the Elite 8 -- "Keep me in your Hart." 

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Looks almost all of the other scores got  uploaded. I rounded up or figured out a few of the missing ones. Just need the following teams to re-do the power ranking sheet. I will do single year, 2 year, and 3 year.


 


Skunker vs Primetime


Sonofpatbeach vs Diaz


Ones vs Lefty


Skunker vs OToole OT


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Looks almost all of the other scores got  uploaded. I rounded up or figured out a few of the missing ones. Just need the following teams to re-do the power ranking sheet. I will do single year, 2 year, and 3 year.

 

Skunker vs Primetime

Sonofpatbeach vs Diaz

Ones vs Lefty

Skunker vs OToole OT

 

I found the lost sheets (equal in importance to the lost sea scrolls), and sent them over to Orenga. Hopefully we'll have all games in there soon.

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If it helps at all I believe my round of 64 thrashing at the hands of Skunker was Was 24 Cin 0. Looks like that one is missing from the scores. I was pretty devastated until I later realized who James T was. Went 3-2 but lost to two Elite 8 participants. Curious to see if that tough road helps minimize my drop out of the Top 50. Thanks for doing these rankings Bruddog - pretty cool.

Edited by Lamefest
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Two year top Madison 50 power ranking. I used a predicted score for a couple games from Tecmo X and one from Tecmo XI.  Total games played factored in this time vs just raw efficiency as its harder to maintain a high level of play over more games. As usual these rankings are for entertainment purposes. Three year coming later


 


 


 


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I did a matchup data dump before Tecmo XI that included games from Tecmo 8,9,and 10. Here are some of the best matchups for each team. In some cases the best matchup is duplicated.. example CIN-CHI, CHI-CIN.  Here is how to read the table


 


AVG P1= Average power rating(pts above 0) of that teams player  


AVG P2= Average Power rating of the opponents teams player


Exp= Expected game point differential based on power rating of players


Act= Actual average point differential


Dif= Expected minus actual. Negative means the team did worse than expected on average. 


Ply dif= the average difference in power rating between the two players


#G = number of times the matchup was played\


 


 


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Here is the full excel file


 


matchups.xlsx


 


I was tempted to only use games after group play but sample sizes start getting really small. 


 


Here is 4 writeups for today..


 


 


 


 


1 ATL-NO


 


Atlanta is a team that can hang with a number of teams due to a potent Miller to Rison connection. They are pretty clearly better than most teams considered below them but can have problems with teams above them .In this matchup the blocking of NO creates problems for ATL's one man defense Deion and their craptacular LB's. If you can pound it at him it opens up the  passing game making No's offense pretty efficient in this matchup. They can also make noise on the kickoffs as Heyward can popcorn a lot of the defenders. NO has a bunch of mediocre level defenders with no studs. This makes it tough to play pass defense versus the lethal Miller to Rison connection but the drones can do a good job in containing the change of pace Rozier runs  The table says ATL has performed about 3 pts worse than average in the 10 matchups and the NO player has been rated ever so slightly 0.5 pt better.


 


2. BUF-GIA


An interesting matchup of powerhouses. Both have bottom lbs that can destroy the up the middle runs with dives. Bennet is the better lb here. Both have top lb's for dropping into coverage or killing the iform toss down. Obviously  LT is the super stud here. Buffalo has a more potent offensive attack with QB Bills 81PC, 56 69 reed and 63 50rec thurman. This is offset by the NYG speed at defense across the board and the decent INT across the board including 63 int Walls and 63int reasons on obvious passing plays where you want extra coverage.


NYG can match the BUF offense though with their speedy WR's and the thunder and lightning combo of Otis and Megget. Buffalo's secondary isn't going to pick off many passes so the giants can also bomb to their WR's without much fear. The player choosing the NYG has been about 1 point better in the power ratings but Buffalo has been about 1.6 pts better on average. 


 


3 CHI-CIN


A running based matchup of second tier teams. Both teams need to be very careful with passing with the beat Fulcher for CIN and 81int Carrier and his high INT pals. CIN has a problem in many matchups in that the WR's are very slow requiring the qb to buy a lot of time and runs can be directed at Fulcher making him not as potent as he could be otherwise. CIN players should expect a heavy dose of running at Fulcher via the iform. Neal or Megget will likely be used at top WR. If the player tries to use Francis to stop the iform plays it can open up quick burn hits to the top WR or other passing plays. The goal for Cincy on D is to try and get CHI in obvious passing downs where Fulcher can do work and force a punt or get a pick if the player is careless. On offense they can pound the rock pretty well via iform or the standard R & S playbook since Singletary won't be much of an option and Sinson and Carrier are average speed wise. CIN has to grind their way down the field like Chicago using Boomers passing speed and scrambling ability to take advantage of the somewhat slow CHI secondary. Brooks can be subbed in at WR for end of half chucks. Both the player and pnt differential have CHI as the slight favorite in a 10 game sample but its a pretty solid matchup. 


 


4. CLE-GB


This matchup throws a lot of defensive skill out the window. The passing ability off both offenses combined with the weak secondary's leads to lots of QB Browns and Majik bombs. Both have some wheels to should they feel like taking a sure first down. Harris and Nelson are really the only man controlleable players for GB so they can be run at pretty effectively despite Metcalf and Mack being only 38 and 31 ms.  If either goes into good or excellent its a real nightmare. Likewise 94 HP haddix can open up holes for 44ms Woodside. Both Minniffield and Johnson are in less than ideal spots to defend a lot of running plays so GB can ground and pound pretty easily if hey like. All in all this a pretty offensive matchup that can negate the skill of the other player on defense to a great extent as it becomes a battle of offensive execution. The higer rated player has been choosing GB but in a whopping 36 games the average pt differential is a tiny 0.4 pts.  


 


PROBLEM MATCHUP OF THE DAY


MIA-KC


 


My practice matchup with Chet on Friday confirmed what the data says. This is problematic matchup for KC. MIA has two safeties that can be used to contain the run and a couple players that are okoye popcorn proof.  The main problem is KC's secondary is too slow to contain marino's quick passes. I wanted to see if snow could get the job done. But the CC's and burn routes are abit much for snow to stop.  KC can keep pace offensively but there is less margin for error. The average player using MIA has been over 5 pts better than the KC player and has been winning the matchup by about 2 pts more than expected.  


 


 


 


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bruddog, it would be nice to take your team matchup data (or lots of data from tpc stats) and use it to "weight" pool-play scores, based on teams used.


 


since tournament is structured on point differential in pool play, it hurts guys that have to use crappy teams that can't score many points.


 


for example, if I play a guy who isn't very good with BUF v GIA, I might beat him 35-10.  Otherwise, lets say it's IND v SEA, and I can only beat this same guy 10-0.  just because you win by 25 with BUF, how much more is it worth than winning with IND by 10? 


 


it seems like there should be a way to level the scores off.  does this make sense?


Edited by buck
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well, one game may not matter, but 3 games of lower tier teams might (not) add up.  


 


and throwing a 66 point win with anybody tells you something about the guy who lost = total shit.  throw that score out.


 


just an idea, because this specific thing is what set me a high (6th or 8th?) seed (even though I was 3-0 in pool) at Lincoln V.  But the "best" team I played with in pool was ATL.  other pools were rocking high-scoring teams and so that left me behind.  so I have seen it 1st hand.


Edited by buck
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Here is a sample from Tecmo 8,9,10.


 


The average person that won with NE won by  15.9 pts. 


The average person that won with SEA won by  12.9 pt (small sample that included 3 SEA over RAMS wins)


 The average person that won with GB won by  15.0 pts. 


The average person that won with PIT won by  12.0 pts. 


The average person that won with NYG won by 13.6 pts. 


The average person that won with BUF won by 15.9 pts. 


 


That's like the super top level analysis. By far the largest factor is the luck of who you play in the small sample of games and if you get matchups that you are strong in or prefer playing and of course your tecmo skill. The guys earning the top seeds are typically among the best players.


 


And earning a top seed in madison for example maybe only gave you one extra "easier" game as almost everyone in the round of 32 could be considered an elite player. For sure the round of 16.   

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