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kingsoby1

Discussion on how to rate defense

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I've had a lot of different ideas on this over the past couple years, but I've constantly been changing things around and looking for a better way to do things.

I think I'm fnally sold on bruddog's idea of giving a baseline rating for speed based on certain team stats (weighted differently per position) and a baseline rating for hp based on different stats/ weightings.

However, beyond this, I'm wondering exactly what individual stats I should use to gauge ability increases and decreases from baseline...

Stats available, that I would contemplate using for individual alterations:

- Total plays by defensive unit

- Tackles

- Sacks

- Pass deflections

- Interceptions

- Int return yards/ TDs

- Forced Fumbles

I was thinking earlier that, yes, it is quite obvious that worse defenses will be on the field longer and register more tackles and stats in general.

BUT, what if I used these hybrid stats:

- Tackles per Play (%)

- Sacks per Play (%)

- Pdefs per Play (%)

I talked with bruddog about this once, and I think it effectively gauges individual effectiveness on a defensive unit. It penalizes players that dont play every down or are injured... well, because they are less effective on the season, right?

By doing this, you will effectively be able to see what players lead their teams to end drives more regularly through the fact that their defenses aren't on the field as long.

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I don't think you need to uses tackles per play. Just make sure you are only comparing intra-team when you are using tackles. I don't think tackles have much use as to a players effectiveness most of the time.

I use tackles in the following way:

DL: Pretty much meaningless but sometimes I'll use it to give a low sack DL speed.

LB: Pretty much one of the sole determiners of thier speed.

DB: Mostly tackles only come into play for hitting power. But you have to be careful the the DB isn't regeristing a lot of tackles b/c they suck and then tackle the guy after they've already been burned for a first.

On defense trying to use some intuition is good when doling out baseline points as to what would make the defense the way it performed.

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Individual stats are tough to evaluate defensive players, because stats don't necessarily relate to their ability (see: Wayne Haddix)

Team stats might be the way to go, but honestly I think you need to have watched these teams enough to get a feel for the individual players. If they are a stud in real life, make them a stud on the ROM, even if they don't have a high tackles per game rating.

That being said, Ohio State will probably be disgusting on this.

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for the rose bowl rom, jstout will be going through scouting reports and upping or lowering my ratings by notches.

this is largely due to how hard to gauge college performances are based on stats.

bruddog, i really think that tackles should be included more for safety's speed ratings... but i agree that corners shouldn't be gauged as much by tackles.

concerning using tackles per play, i really want to compare individual performances for the whole league, not just intra-team... but ill probably try it out that way to see how they work out.

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kingsoby, i have an idea. if u give a team (through stats) a certain score that will be used to determine RP for the whole defence. im not saying every guy having the same amount of RP. but the total team RP ability should be part of the overall ranking of a defense since it is by far the most ipmortant attribute on D(sometimes depending on the offence going against).

so say a team has a total RP points earnded of 100

any player with a

25RP is 2

31RP is 4

38RP is 6

44RP is 9

50RP is 14 points

56RP is 20 points

just quickly thought up, just posted it without thinking it over cause i wont be workin on roms for,,, who knows

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you can have an amazing defense and a mediocre offense... you need the complete package to be successful in the NFL now, unless you're in the NFC North.

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you can have an amazing defense and a mediocre offense... you need the complete package to be successful in the NFL now, unless you're in the NFC North.

Take that back.

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Cincinatti Bengals

1998-2004 St Lous Rams

you need the complete package to be successful in the NFL now, unless you're in the NFC North.

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I think I've almost settled on a D rating strategy for recent years. I haven't started a rom yet, just been writing ratings on paper, so I'm not entirely sure how each team will shake out yet. But I kind of strung RS together with RP and MS. Here's what I have so far for 2005:

For DL and LB I did Sacks + Pdef + (Ints + Yds/100 + TDs) + Safeties. I had a list of the top 50 sack leaders for DL and the top 50 for LB. I wrote my rating next to each player's name. Then I matched the original ratings for each category to my ratings. So RS goes from 25-44, with only one player at 44. Jason Taylor of Miami had 12 sacks, led DLs with 9 Pdef, and had a safety for a score of 22. That was way ahead of everyone else -Simeon Rice came in second with 19.0. So Taylor was the only one to get 44 RS. Ten players in the original had 38 RS. I settled on a score of 15 as the cutoff point, and that got me 10 players at 38 RS. The cutoff for 31 RS was 10 points, and everyone else gets 25.

Since Taylor rated so well I gave him 63 RP and 69 MS. I split the 38 RS players to 50 RP/56 MS and 56 RP/63 MS, gave the 31 RS players 44 RP/50 MS, and split the 25 RS players to 31 RP/38 MS and 38 RP/44 MS.

For DB I changed it slightly: I made Pdef worth half an Int, but used basically the same system.

My Interception scale goes from 19 for 0 to 75 for 9, 81 for 10-11, 88 for 12-13 . 5 Pdef are roughly equivalent to 1 Int. For example, Ronde Barber gets 75 Int because even though he only has 5 picks, he also had 20 Pdef. 20/5 = 4, 4 + 5 Ints = 9.

For HP of DL and LB I made a rating of Sacks + Forced Fumbles. For DB there weren't really enough sacks and FF, so I'm trying Tackles/10 + Sacks + FF. It seems to have worked, but this is the only one I'm not sure about. The team approach might still be the best bet for DBs, then use tackles for intra-team like someone said.

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including safeties and pdefs for DLs doesn't seem like it makes any sense... as they are more random than anything.

I included safeties just because they're so rare that I thought players should get a bonus for getting one. It's at least as impressive as getting a sack. In '05 there were so few safeties that it had virtually no effect on the ratings.

Pdefs I stand by. There are really two kinds of Pdefs, I think, and the stats don't distinguish between them. One is the DL is blocked and he sticks his arm up in the air and gets lucky. The other kind, though, is where the DL has his blocker beat, he's in the face of the QB, and the QB tries a desperation throw instead of getting sacked. Since this happens in TSB all the time I thought the stat was a good indication of how fast the TSB version of the player should be. In other words, the more Pdefs in real life, the more Pdefs in TSB.

Judge for yourself if my system works. Here are my top 10 DLs in terms of speed (at least 38/50/56)

Jason Taylor MIA

Simeon Rice TB

Aaron Schobel BUF

Osi Umenyiora GIA

Julius Peppers CAR

Rod Coleman ATL

Derrick Burgess RAI

Jared Allen KC

Bryce Fisher SEA

Adewale Ogunleye CHI

Phillip Daniels WAS

The only thing is I might boost Strahan and Kyle Vanden Bosch - those two are really the only very good players with no Pdefs. Maybe I should make Pdefs count as half a sack, but you have to consider them. It is what put Julius Peppers in the top 10.

Here are my heavy hitters, based on Sacks + FF (81 and 88 HP because my DLs average at least one level above the original):

Simeon Rice TB

Robert Mathis IND

Derrick Burgess RAI

Osi Umenyiora GIA

Kyle Vanden Bosch TEN

Jason Taylor MIA

Jared Allen KC

Dwight Feeney IND

John Abraham JETS

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I think I'm fnally sold on bruddog's idea of giving a baseline rating for speed based on certain team stats (weighted differently per position) and a baseline rating for hp based on different stats/ weightings.

What stats do you use for baseline ratings for which positions? I have some idea of how I want to use total yards, rush yards, pass yards, Ints, total sacks, and points allowed, but I have yet to work out the details. Tackles are not available for older teams, so they are out.

What do you start with?

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Using total yards is possibly one of the worst things you can do as total yards is often a bad measure of a good offense or defense.

For example a team that is getting blown out early often might not give up a lot of total yards since the opther team is content to run out clock.

Likewise a losing team can rack up a lot of meaningless yards

Some examples:

I use a combination of rushing yards per attempt, total rush TDs and rushing first down percentage to determine RP/MS for LB/DL

I use sacks/pass attempt for HP for OLB/DL. I break it down by total LB only and DL only.

All of these numbers are schedule weighted (2 iterations) as well

Of course trying to have an understadning of what the team was about helps. But that isn't always possible with every single team.

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yards per attempt on D coupled with 3rd down % sounds good. for defensive lineman you might want to look into goalline scoring percentage.

for DB's i would be carefull in using Int. cause theres so much chance involved. with only a 16 game season its hard to completely rely on one season of stats.

try using 75% of the current season and the other 25% of the players carreer stats or last 3 seasons.

i heard something about the NFL giving us more game? that would be cool

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Using total yards is possibly one of the worst things you can do as total yards is often a bad measure of a good offense or defense.

For example a team that is getting blown out early often might not give up a lot of total yards since the opther team is content to run out clock.

Likewise a losing team can rack up a lot of meaningless yards

Some examples:

I use a combination of rushing yards per attempt, total rush TDs and rushing first down percentage to determine RP/MS for LB/DL

I use sacks/pass attempt for HP for OLB/DL. I break it down by total LB only and DL only.

All of these numbers are schedule weighted (2 iterations) as well

Of course trying to have an understadning of what the team was about helps. But that isn't always possible with every single team.

This sounds very reasonable. Although, scanning through rushing TDs right now it seems like they are not a very good indication of anything. The 1980 Raiders gave up 19 rush TDs and the 1991 Bills gave up 20. I think both of those DLs were regarded as very good - the Raider team had 54 sacks. Wouldn't your logic about total yards also hold for TDs? It seems to be the same kind of thing. I was going to use TDs to begin with, but now I might just stick with yardage stats and first downs.

I already decided on sacks for HP for DL, but the stats aren't broken down by position for what I'm doing so I was hoping to come up with another stat for LB HP, not sure what though. Might just make DL and LB the same (proportionally to the original rom).

What about RS/RP/MS for DB? Passing yards per attempt, Comp. %, and first downs?

What about DB HP? I have no clue what I would use for this.

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In addition to all this is anyone taking into consideration the strength of the opposition each player is up against as well as the strength of each players supporting cast?

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I always do a two level adjustment to the stats.

Based on

1. Opponents Team A played

2. Opponents Opponents of Team A

I now pretty much just use weighted rushing yards and first down percentage as yards per rush is often skewed by the fact teams with leads care more about running out clock than the yards per rush on both offense and defense. Total rushing Td's is small weight as often bad pass defense or turnovers by the offense can often lead to rush TD's the defense otherwise wouldn't allow.

For passing its about first down percentage, yards per attempt and int%.

Rating individual defensive players is a crapshoot. MLB's are always going to rack up tackles in a 4-3 scheme due to the nature of the 4-3. The defensive scheme/specific position is going to dictate a lot of the stats most times.

I think using team stats makes the teams accurate to the team perspective but in no way do I expect the individual players to be accurate given the simplicity of tecmo defense and lack of good

nfl stats.

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