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Let's play: Which Team Would You Pick?


vikingmoe02

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12 hours ago, bruddog said:

 

I agree. I think PIT and the JETS is pushing it though as PHI has enough defense to make those offenses pretty painful. 

 

I'd never call those in tourney play, but I'd wager against the average player, I could win over 50% of those games. Against a top-notch player, maybe 2/10.

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9 hours ago, vikingmoe02 said:

@Neerrm This matchup is sneaky good. Steelers match up well vs the bad TB OL. This is a great match up to call if you're comfortable with the Steelers, because I think most would take TB.

 

As a team the Steelers have one of the best defenses in the league, maybe THE best. But the front seven do not actually have very high HP. Greg Lloyd has the highest with 63, and at ROLB it doesn't matter that much, followed by NT Gerald Williams with 56. With everyone on both teams in average, none of the TB OL will actually get popcorned so the line battle might be less of a factor than you might think. I chose the Steelers on the straw poll but I'm having second thoughts. Lloyd and Woodson are good for spying on Vinny, so they still might be the better choice. That offense is tough to use, though. 

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On ‎12‎/‎6‎/‎2016 at 8:15 PM, BO FB Offtackle Left said:

 

As a team the Steelers have one of the best defenses in the league, maybe THE best. But the front seven do not actually have very high HP. Greg Lloyd has the highest with 63, and at ROLB it doesn't matter that much, followed by NT Gerald Williams with 56. With everyone on both teams in average, none of the TB OL will actually get popcorned so the line battle might be less of a factor than you might think. I chose the Steelers on the straw poll but I'm having second thoughts. Lloyd and Woodson are good for spying on Vinny, so they still might be the better choice. That offense is tough to use, though. 

 

You may be forgetting that TB has the worst center in the game. NT Williams will bust through on every passing play and most running plays.

56hp - 31hp = 25 difference = popcorn time

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7 hours ago, bruddog said:

25 hp is only about 66% bust in actually. 

 

 

 

that is 2 out of 3 downs.


I'd be most concerned moving the ball with PIT vs Haddix.  

 

I suppose I would pick TB, based on my style/experience and it just seems like TB has more weapons and could grind it out a little better.

 

This game sounds fun, but like a mess.  

Edited by buck
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Bo... Moe is referring to drone vs drone  

The 66% is a bit misleading because they aren't always doing the okoye style popcorn

 

For >=25 HP < 50 HP difference DEF vs OFF (COM V COM)

33%-> normal grapple

 

24%-> OL thrown but defender is flat on ground. 

43%-> bust in without falling down

 

 

For a >=50HP difference DEF vs OFF (COM V COM)

20%-> normal grapple

16%-> OL thrown but defender is flat on ground.

64%-> bust in without falling down

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, bruddog said:

The 66% is a bit misleading because they aren't always doing the okoye style popcorn

For >=25 HP < 50 HP difference DEF vs OFF (COM V COM)

33%-> normal grapple

24%-> OL thrown but defender is flat on ground. 

43%-> bust in without falling down

For a >=50HP difference DEF vs OFF (COM V COM)

20%-> normal grapple

16%-> OL thrown but defender is flat on ground.

64%-> bust in without falling down

 

Do these numbers float through your head like Bobby Fischer when you are playing at Madison?

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5 hours ago, bruddog said:

Bo... Moe is referring to drone vs drone  

The 66% is a bit misleading because they aren't always doing the okoye style popcorn

 

For >=25 HP < 50 HP difference DEF vs OFF (COM V COM)

33%-> normal grapple

 

24%-> OL thrown but defender is flat on ground. 

43%-> bust in without falling down

 

 

For a >=50HP difference DEF vs OFF (COM V COM)

20%-> normal grapple

16%-> OL thrown but defender is flat on ground.

64%-> bust in without falling down

 

 

 

 

 

Yes I know, drone vs drone. But even drone vs drone you can get a popcorn if there is a 50hp difference. The defensive player will just touch the offensive player and they go flying with the defensive player not slowing down.This happens to the TB center when he is in Bad (25hp) and a 69hp NT goes into Good to have 75hp. Other times when the defensive player throws the offensive player and comes in they have to grapple first.

Edited by BO FB Offtackle Left
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51 minutes ago, BO FB Offtackle Left said:

 

Yes I know, drone vs drone. But even drone vs drone you can get a popcorn if there is a 50hp difference. The defensive player will just touch the offensive player and they go flying with the defensive player not slowing down.This happens to the TB center when he is in Bad (25hp) and a 69hp NT goes into Good to have 75hp. Other times when the defensive player throws the offensive player and comes in they have to grapple first.

 

That is not correct....it works exactly as I said above. You can get a "popcorn" with a 25HP difference too it just happens less often.  

 

Just as even with a 50HP difference a grapple can still occur on drone vs drone it just happens much less often. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, bruddog said:

That is not correct....

 

Please explain further. There are at least four potential outcomes of line play, whatever the percentages and HP are, and you only list three in the above table. I'm not sure what you mean by each of these things, either. To be as clear as possible, you can have:

 

1. They grapple forever and no one gets thrown or falls down (Is this what you mean by "normal grapple"?

2. They grapple for a certain amount of time, then someone gets thrown and the other falls down.

3. They grapple for a certain amount of time, then someone gets thrown or falls down and the other player is still standing. If it's the defensive player, they rush in.

4. Popcorn

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Just taking defensive HP > offensive HP.

 

 

1. normal grapple = players collide and stay collided for a random amount of time (Average time 5 real seconds,).  One player is eventually thrown but HP is irellevant in who is thrown if this routine is triggered. 

 

50% defensive player wins the normal grapple the defensive player runs in and the offensive player is thrown. 

50%   offensive player wins the normal grapple and defensive player is thrown

           50% offensive player stays standing

           50% offensive player lies flat on ground       

 

2. "Popcorn but defender is on ground after popcorn"=  OL thrown but defender is flat on ground .  Offensive player is thrown immediately upon collision. Defensive player lays flat on ground for a period of time. Then gets up and chases the QB

 

3. "Popcorn defender keeps running"   = bust in without falling down. Offensive player is thrown immediately upon collision and defender keeps running...

 

So yes I guess there are 4 possibilites if you want to break the normal grapple down to 

1. offense wins normal grapple

2. defense wins normal grapple. 

 

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42 minutes ago, bruddog said:

Just taking defensive HP > offensive HP.

 

 

1. normal grapple = players collide and stay collided for a random amount of time (Average time 5 real seconds,).  One player is eventually thrown but HP is irellevant in who is thrown if this routine is triggered. 

 

50% defensive player wins the normal grapple the defensive player runs in and the offensive player is thrown. 

50%   offensive player wins the normal grapple and defensive player is thrown

           50% offensive player stays standing

           50% offensive player lies flat on ground       

 

2. "Popcorn but defender is on ground after popcorn"=  OL thrown but defender is flat on ground .  Offensive player is thrown immediately upon collision. Defensive player lays flat on ground for a period of time. Then gets up and chases the QB

 

3. "Popcorn defender keeps running"   = bust in without falling down. Offensive player is thrown immediately upon collision and defender keeps running...

 

So yes I guess there are 4 possibilites if you want to break the normal grapple down to 

1. offense wins normal grapple

2. defense wins normal grapple. 

 

 

Okay, this I understand. Since the defender popcorning the offensive player and running in immediately is really the only thing that matters with the line, what are the percentages of a popcorn and run in based on the following?

 

players are even or offensive player has higher HP

defensive player is 6-25hp higher (or 6-19, or whatever the actual threshold is for a change)

defensive player is 25-50hp higher (or whatever the middle range is)

defensive player is at least 50hp higher 

Edited by BO FB Offtackle Left
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10 minutes ago, BO FB Offtackle Left said:

 

Okay, this I understand. Since the defender popcorning the offensive player and running in immediately is really the only thing that matters with the line, what are the percentages of a popcorn and run in based on the following?

 

Quote

 

These will trigger the "normal grapple"

players are even or offensive HP is within 19 HP greater o...basically 0%. 1/(255*255*64) = ~1 in 4 million chance if you got super lucky with the random # generation

 

defensive player is 6-19hp higher (or 6-19, or whatever the actual threshold is for a change) same as above

 

Quote

These have a chance of the player running in immediately
defensive player is 25-44hp higher (or whatever the middle range is)  43%

defensive player is at least 50hp higher 63%

 

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