Dan Marino In Excellent?

[danfritsch]

Just noticed today that when Marino gets to excellent his pass speed is 94, yet he throws with more arch than he does at 81 PS in Average. Anyone else come across this before? Care to share comments?

[TomTupa]

Maybe because his avoid pass block is higher?

[ApolloSpeed]

i noticed that too....but the pass is faster too.... so its ok

and he finially gets up to 19ms in excellent.....so you can actually move around the pocket

I think more importantly....is getting an RB in excellent! Cause these 38ms RBs just suxs!!!!

[danfritsch]

I took note of the Arch too. Pretty dangerous with that combination. I don't remember Tolliver ever having that even with the same PS.

[ApolloSpeed]

I just back to backed the arch of both Marino and BJ......both had the same arch in excellent condition, same play, same receiver position.

It is kinda wierd that it archs more when the PS gets higher than 81......especially when you look at Grogan....... not PS, but the actual arch of Marino and BJ(excellent) is about the same as Grogan(normal condition)

[danfritsch]

The arc of the pass is odd. It would be brutal if it got any faster than his Average condition with a man vs man short pass attack though.

[ApolloSpeed]

another thing I have noticed about QBs....and I just got done testing it out.

Forever I always thought that the Rodney Peete was a better QB than Elway. Because mainly of the 44PC verses 31PC. Now I've pretty much confirmed that Elway is overall better at completing more passes. Even though he has a lower PC.

I took the same pass play and used a receiver on both teams that had the same RECs(50REC). And just constantly threw the same pass with both teams.

Elway completed 26-30 passes to an open and stopped (50REC) Sewell.

Peete completed 21-30 passes to an open and stopped (50REC) Gray.

....then I tried passing to the same receivers in motion running a slant with one defender trailing...

Elway completed 21-30 (1 ints) passes to a slanting (50REC) Sewell being trailed by a defender.

Peete completed 9-30 (3 ints) passes to a slanting (50REC) Gray being trailed by a defender.

.....and lastly, for one final test.....the 50+ yard bomb with Ronnie Lippett (63 INT) covering.

Elway completed 11-30 passes (3 ints), 50+ yard bomb to (69REC) Jackson being trailed by Lippett.

Peete completed 13-30 passes (2 ints), 50+ yard bomb to (69REC) Clark being trailed by Lippett.

So....other than Peete being "slightly" better at bomb passes....I'd have to say for some reason, Elway is better! And if Pass Accuracy truely has no bearing in tecmo....than I'm not really sure why Elway seems to be better?

[bruddog]

1. Flipping a coin 30 times isn't a very large sample when it comes to statistics. You can't really conclude anything based on that. I can flip a coin 30 times and sometimes I might get 20 heads. Another time maybe only 10. In fact that will happen fairly often. Is my coin broken? I got anywhere from 33% heads to 66% heads. Nope. My sample size was just small. Even if I increase the sample size to 200 i will still vary around the mean by 4-5% fairly often. Another problem with tecmo is I'm pretty sure it is only psuedo-random. By that I mean I think it has a pre-programmed set of random numbers that it cycles through. So depending on the exact time of the tests you may not get a true random distribution.

2. I can see why elway does better on slants. PS makes a big difference on some of those slant passes.

3. See #1

The difference between 44 and 31pc is only a couple percent when it comes to completing passes.

They are nearly even in terms of value. Elways faster PS lets him zip passes into WR's before the defender can get there more often than Peete.

Peete is more mobile and will complete a few more passes in coverage and not as easy to jj int.

[ApolloSpeed]

I know that it wasn't the most accurate way of proving my point.....but I've noticed on more than one occasion that Elway seems to do slightly better than Peete. For instance, I've had much better success with online tecmo when I'm Denver..... usually when I'm the Lions, I lose EVERY time! And most of it is truely from myself tring to pass a little too much and Peete failing horribly!

I just don't understand why a team that on paper should be WAAAYYYY better than Denver, really isn't. Atleast in my experience anyways.

Btw, you got me curious about the psuedo-random thing. It would make since that one QB (reguardless of stats) would be more prone to have better luck than another. If I understand you correctly. And The difference between 44 and 31pc is only a couple percent when it comes to completing passes? Only 2%??? That would, by your ratio, put Montana only 8% better..... that can't be right.

[bruddog]

Well if there is a defender sitting right on the guy its 7%. But there are a lot of passes that occur during the course of the game where the defender isn't close enough to factor in.

[ApolloSpeed]

I'm having a hard time understanding here......

7% for 31pc, 44pc, or 81pc?? And wouldn't it vary depending on how much INTs a defender has?

[TomTupa]

Just think of it as every notch of pc or rec you go up (or down) you'll gain (or lose) 3-4%. Also the db's int will take it down 3-4% as well. It's just a pc + rec compared to int calculation. Interceptions are also figured the same way (3-4% change in the chances for every notch in int/pc/rec).

[tadaos]

i know this post is a little old but i saw this because i'm trying to get a better idea of what happens on a given play. from what i am to understand the skill level of the player adds 3-4% on the probability of a catch, an incomplete, or an INT. my question is what is the base number where this starts? if it's 0 then i am to understand something like this:

let's assume each player is in average condition

QB has a PC of 50, which if 6 PC is skill level 1, 50 PC is skill level 8.

if each skill level increases 3-4%, lets just use 3.5% for arguements sake, then the probabilty of him completing a pass to an open receiver with 0 rec is 28%, we'll use that as his base percentage number.

if he is throwing to a 50 rec WR (skill level it will add 28%.

28 + 28 = 56% chance of completing a pass to an open 50 rec WR

if said WR is covered by Haddix (skill level 12) he will reduce the catch percentage by

12 x 3.5% = 42%

56 - 42 = 14% chance of a cover catch

if QB is throwing to an elite WR like Rice (81 REC, skill level 13) it will add 45.5%

28 + 45.5 = 73.5% chance if Rice is open.

if Haddix is covering 73.5 - 42 = 31.5% chance of a cover catch

if we use a worse QB, let's use 25PC (skill level 4)

14 + 28 (50 REC WR) = 42% if he is open

covered by Haddix 42 - 42 = 0 chance of a cover catch.

14 + 45.5 (81 REC WR) = 59.5%

covered by Haddix 59.5 - 42 = 17.5% chance of a cover catch.

if we use an elite QB like Montana or Kelly (81 PC), their base is 45.5%

45.5 + 28 (50 REC WR) = 73.5% if he is open

covered by Haddix 73.5 - 42 = 31.5% chance of a cover catch.

now if i am understanding this correctly this is my question. what is the % chance of an INT?

if a 50PC QB throws to a covered 50 REC WR by Haddix (75 INT) the chance for an incompletion is 84%. what is the % of that number that it will be an INT?

[bruddog]

there is a spreadsheet i posted somewhere that details the percentages. Again on long passes you can sort of of throw the percentages out the window b/c often times the defender is way past the WR. Which is why even shitty QB's can jj well from time to time.

[kamphuna8]

bump

[GameplayLoop]

When Dan Marino is feeling Excellent, he is 65% more likely to drop lawsuits.

[Slippery Nips]

Those gozongas could give anyone a concussion...  And then make them forget about it.