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Tecmo XI - By The Numbers & Vegas Bets


hoigaard

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Each year I try to do some sort of look at some of the demographics, matchups, oddities, and potential wagers that spawn from Tecmo Madison. And Tecmo XI is no different. Let this thread be a place for you to post anything numbers-related for Tecmo (or specifically, Madison) and discuss fun and equally dumb stuff. I'll start the post like I start it every year:


 


Here are some numbers to put in perspective the difficulty of leaving this tourney in good standing-

25% of the field will go 0-2.

25% of the field will go 1-2.

12.5 to 25% of the field will go 2-2.

 

***Half of the field will leave with a losing record, and only 25 to 37.5% of all entrants will depart with any semblance of a "winning" (above .500) record.***

 

 

Next, for the last few years I've tried to find a good way to figure out what the general rate of team selection has been in the Madison Tourney, as well as team winning percentages. Put simply: "What were the two teams selected, and who won that particular game?" The first couple years I just took a random sampling of 200 results from the previous tourneys. Bruddog pointed a really good tweak I should make: "Honestly the player strength account for so much in team matchups. This is even more true in the opening rounds of madison where many games are complete blowouts.It would have probably been more useful to either included all the games to get a bigger sample or restrict the sample to the field of 64 games where "in theory" the player skill differential isn't as large."

 

Terrific point made. So, that's what I did.

 

I took the results for all Single-Elim and Elite 8 games from the last 3 tournaments (some weren't logged, but there were 170 total games used, more than enough to get a solid sample) to figure out what teams tend to get called in games featuring reasonably similar talent levels, as well as team winning %. First up, here are the # of times a team appeared in this study (with usage % in parenthesis):

 



Cin 30 (17.6%)

SD 26 (15.3%)

Was 21 (12.4%)

Dal 21 (12.4%)

KC 19 (11.2%)

Jets 18 (10.6%)

Chi 18 (10.6%)

Mia 17 (10.0%)

Phx 17 (10.0%)

Den 15 (8.8%)

Min 14 (8.2%)

Pit 13 (7.6%)

Det 12 (7.1%)

Rams 12 (7.1%)

NO 12 (7.1%)

Rai 10 (5.9%)

Atl 10 (5.9%)

Phi 8 (4.7%)

GB 8 (4.7%)

TB 8 (4.7%)

Cle 7 (4.1%)

Buf 5 (2.9%)

Hou 5 (2.9%)

NE 4 (2.4%)

NYG 4 (2.4%)

Sea 3 (1.8%)

Ind 2 (1.2%)

SF 1 (0.6%)

 



No real surprise that SF is at the bottom, followed by the rest of the cluster of either really good (NYG, HOU, Buf) or really bad (Ind, Sea, NE) teams. I was surprised to see Cincy at the top. I know they get a lot of use, but to be #1 by 4 uses over SD and 9 more than Dal/Was, that was interesting. They appear in nearly 1 out of every 5 elimination games.


 


But usage without winning % as context isn't a full picture. Here's each team's total wins (ranked by winning % in parenthesis) in those Madison games:


 


NYG 4 (1.000)

Buf 4 .(800)

Rams 9 .(750)

TB 6 (.750)

KC 14 (.737)

GB 5 (.625)

Dal 13 (.619)

NO 7 (.583)

Cin 17 (.567)

Den 8 (.533)

Mia 9 (.529)

Phx 9 (.529)

Jets 9 (.500)

Ind 1 (.500)

Was 10 (.476)

Min 6 (.429)

Cle 3 (.429)

SD 11 (.423)

Atl 4 (.400)

Chi 7 (.389)

Phi 3 (.375)

Sea 1 (.333)

Rai 3 (.300)

Det 3 (.250)

NE 1 (.250)

Hou 1 (.200)

Pit 2 (.154)

SF 0 (.000)

 

I was surprised to see an undefeated team. Granted it's only 4 games, but NYG would normally be placed in matchups against other really elite teams, so I wouldn't expect them to be unblemished. Pit appears to be far and away the most overvalued team, ranking 12th in overall selections with 13, but only winning 2. Chicago also stands out, appearing 18 times but winning only 7 of them. It looks like the Rams may be the most under-valued team in the field (at least by this study), ranking 14th in total uses with 12, but have won 9 of them. KC has a lot of value as well, appearing 19 times and winning at a .737 clip.

 

 

Coming up next, Group/Region demographics/experience.

 

 

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“Which region has the most Madison experience? The most wins? The most losses? Etc.” 


 


Let’s take a look! (Standard disclaimer that many groups may change before kickoff, yadda yadda yadda)


 


Geographically, there's a really really solid spread this year. Only group 16 is an All-Wisconsin group. Every other group has no less than 3 states represented. Groups 24 and 32 both have 7 states represented. Groups 3 and 10 both have just one player from Wisconsin. Where it gets insane as far as distribution is when you expand and look at the Region level. Here's the breakdown:


Hopper - 14 states represented, 22 Wisconsin players


Duvall - 15 states, 24 Wisconsin players


Brando - 15 states, 25 Wisconsin players


Sheen - 13 states, 24 Wisconsin players


 


That's some nice distribution, Holmes.


 


One point of discussion around this tourney is how important previous experience (especially Madison experience) is to finding success. There are 4 groups that feature 7 players with previous Madison experience, and coincidentally (?) all are in the Hopper region: 1, 2, 3, and 7. On the opposite end of the spectrum, 5 groups have 4 players with previous Madison experience: 14, 18, 20, 27, and 28. This is of note compared to last year, when one group had only 1 player with previous experience and two others had 3. It appears the selection committee made a concerted effort to make sure there's a really good distribution of previous Madison experience among the groups, as at least half of the players in every group have made an appearance previously. Here's the list:


Group 1- 7 players

2- 7

3- 7

7- 7

4- 6

6- 6

9- 6

10- 6

11- 6

12- 6

13- 6

16- 6

19- 6

21- 6

23- 6

26- 6

32- 6

5- 5

8- 5

15- 5

17- 5

22- 5

24- 5

25- 5

29- 5

30- 5

31- 5

14- 4

18- 4

20- 4

27- 4

28- 4

 

 


An offshoot of the number of players with Madison experience are the total number of years each group has collectively appeared. Leading the way is group #21, with a combined 26 years at Madison, anchored by Dan D, Flo, and Lucas S. They have 3 full years over the next closest group. The fewest collective years of Madison experience belongs to group 25. While 5 of the players in this group have appeared in the tournament before, each of them has only one year to their name. Their 5 years as a group trails the next-fewest by 3 full years. Here's that list:


 


Group 21- 26 years

1- 23

11- 22

32- 22

23- 21

16- 21

2- 19

13- 19

6- 19

9- 18

29- 18

4- 17

24- 17

20- 17

28- 17

26- 16

30- 16

8- 15

15- 15

22- 14

3- 13

7- 13

19- 13

27- 13

31- 12

14- 12

18- 11

12- 10

17- 10

10- 9

5- 8

25- 5

 

 


Another stat to look at is record in both Madison play and overall tournament play. This is a real nebulous study, as some of the group Madison records are really weighted by the heavy hitters and guys who have played for many years, and the overall tourney record is tough to get a good grasp as well because only a small number of national tournaments get their #s reported to the Madison database. But, if you're curious, here's the Madison winning % by group and the overall tourney winning % by group:


 


Madison-


Group 26 .675 Win %

11- .670

20- .667

1- .664

18- .661

29- .648

2- .645

24- .642

30- .639

31- .633

32- .625

23- .611

19- .596

28- .595

22- .593

8- .591

14- .588

3- .586

27- .586

25- .571

4- .569

5- .563

7- .559

21- .551

9- .545

13- .513

16- .506

10- .500

15- .466

17- .441

6- .438

12- .424

 

All Tourneys:


Group 1- .770 Win %

11- .709

31- .699

18- .685

30- .679

26- .678

32- .653

9- .648

3- .636

20- .632

22- .628

24- .626

28- .624

27- .618

29- .612

5- .609

4- .608

8- .605

2- .596

23- .596

10- .587

14- .580

19- .557

7- .556

12- .530

21- .529

25- .522

13- .513

15- .507

16- .489

6- .474

17- .441

 


 


I was hopeful I could find some sort of vague "Madison Experience Power Number" by group. Bruddog did a great job with his post ranking by individual. I wanted to see if there was a way to look at general group difficulty and strength. It's not perfect, but I created a stat by taking the total number of Madison wins for each group, divided by the number of years they collectively have. Basically this would equate to how many tourney wins the average player from that group would be expected to have in a given year. Again, far far FAR from an exact number, but kinda fun:


 


Group 26- 3.50 wins per Madison

18- 3.36

1- 3.35

20- 3.29

29- 3.28

11- 3.23

2- 3.16

24- 3.06

30- 2.88

28- 2.76

32- 2.73

23- 2.62

3- 2.62

27- 2.62

19- 2.62

8- 2.60

31- 2.58

7- 2.54

22- 2.50

14- 2.50

25- 2.40

9- 2.33

21- 2.27

5- 2.25

4- 2.18

13- 2.05

10- 2.00

16- 2.00

15- 1.80

17- 1.50

6- 1.47

12- 1.4

 

 

Finally, all these numbers broken down by region (hopefully this formats ok):

 


REG. TOTAL


Mad Win


Mad Loss


Tot. Win


Tot. Loss


Mad. Yrs


# w/ Mad. Ex.


Mad Win %


Tot. Win %


 

Hopper


326


227


576


332


127


50


.590


.634


2.57


 


Duvall


283


237


564


372


126


45


.544


.604


2.25


 


Brando


343


225


635


421


129


41


.604


.601


2.66


 


Sheen


345


204


686


375


119


40


.628


.647


2.90



 


 


Madison wins - Sheen most (345), Duvall least (283)


Total wins- Sheen most (686), Duvall least (564)


Madison Collective Years- Brando most (129), Sheen least (119)


Players in region with Madison experience- Hopper most (50), Sheen least (40)


Madison win % - Sheen most (.628), Duvall least (.544)


Total win % - Sheen most (.647), Brando least (.601)


 


Wins per Madison tourney by player:


Sheen 2.9


Brando 2.66


Hopper 2.57


Duvall 2.25


 


Coming later, Vegas bets.


Edited by hoigaard
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But usage without winning % as context isn't a full picture. Here's each team's total wins (ranked by winning % in parenthesis) in those Madison games:

 

NYG 4 (1.000)
Buf 4 .(800)
Rams 9 .(750)
TB 6 (.750)
KC 14 (.737)
GB 5 (.625)
Dal 13 (.619)
NO 7 (.583)
Cin 17 (.567)
Den 8 (.533)
Mia 9 (.529)
Phx 9 (.529)
Jets 9 (.500)
Ind 1 (.500)
Was 10 (.476)
Min 6 (.429)
Cle 3 (.429)
SD 11 (.423)
Atl 4 (.400)
Chi 7 (.389)
Phi 3 (.375)
Sea 1 (.333)
Rai 3 (.300)
Det 3 (.250)
NE 1 (.250)
Hou 1 (.200)
Pit 2 (.154)
SF 0 (.000)
 
I was surprised to see an undefeated team. Granted it's only 4 games, but NYG would normally be placed in matchups against other really elite teams, so I wouldn't expect them to be unblemished. Pit appears to be far and away the most overvalued team, ranking 12th in overall selections with 13, but only winning 2. Chicago also stands out, appearing 18 times but winning only 7 of them. It looks like the Rams may be the most under-valued team in the field (at least by this study), ranking 14th in total uses with 12, but have won 9 of them. KC has a lot of value as well, appearing 19 times and winning at a .737 clip.
 
 
Coming up next, Group/Region demographics/experience.

 

 

Even this way you still need to be very careful in what players you are comparing even in the single elim rounds. I did some filtering but I'll save it until after the tourney also not sure how meaningful it is with just a handful of games sometimes. 

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Rams are an interesting case. I hate them and would never offer them up in a matchup. If someone else offers them, I'd have to really hate the other team to take them. I ran myself a matchup history from Madison VII to X to better understand what matchups I need a feel for. The Rams dominate almost all their common matchups including 13-2 over Det. Now I didn't really need context for my purposes so it could mean a couple things but still interesting. It seems either the field highly undervalues them or really good players like them as early matchup calls when they're confident they'll win.

Most common matchup calls? Den-SD, Min-Was, and GB-Cle. All are pretty close with win% under 56% for the favorites.

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Can anyone confirm if  a SF-IND matchup has been called. I saw a few of those in there and assumed the were typos. Especially given the score and players invloved


 


A note on RAM-DET. I didn't do every tourney like you but the average rams player had a pwr rating of 7 and the average detroit player a rating of -7. So you would expect the rams player to win most of those games regardless of whether or not the rams are actually a better team to use. 


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A note on RAM-DET. I didn't do every tourney like you but the average rams player had a pwr rating of 7 and the average detroit player a rating of -7. So you would expect the rams player to win most of those games regardless of whether or not the rams are actually a better team to use.

That's what I would have guessed. More of the strong players liking the Rams offense but not enough to call them later in the tourney.

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Vegas starts out with some familiar bets from last year, but lines have moved. More likely to be added throughout the week. As a reminder and boring disclaimer: These are for entertainment purposes only, blah blah blah.


 


Tecmo XI Champion’s State:

Wisconsin 1:1

Ohio/Indiana/Kentucky 3:1

New York OR States that touch the Pacific Ocean: 8:1

Field: 10:1

Minn/Iowa/NE/IL/Dakotas: 20:1

 

(With Regulator conceding the trophy this year, Wisconsin comes out as an overwhelming favorite to bring the trophy back home. The list of names from WI is overwhelming, too many to list, really. Even last year they were represented with 4 of the final 8 standing. The Ohio/Indiana/Kentucky contingent is always a threat with Ones, the 4 Vogt Horsemen, Psycho, DaBoy, etc. A new entrant this year is the New York or States that touch the Pacific. With a few big names not making the tourney, the Mort/Lou combo moves from "The Field" to a shared category with some of the West Coast's heavy-hitters. The Field gets pretty decent coverage with the Michigan guys like O'Dell and Toolie, and everywhere else not mentioned in Minn/Iowa/NE/IL/Dakotas. The reason that final group is such a long shot? 0 from this cluster made the Elite 8 last year.)

 

 

Will the Winner of Tecmo X be a Repeat Champion?

Yes +500

No -375

 

(These odds stay right in tune with last year. A knee-jerk reaction without Regulator in the field would be to see that Yes number drop, but everyone still has to go through Chet. And the rest of the defending champions are still playing at elite levels. There may be some buzz among the field, but Vegas expects some usual suspects to be standing at the end.)

 

 

Of the Top 64 Seeds (#1 & 2 in Each Group), How Many Make it to Single-Elim?

+/- 46.5

 

(Last year this number opened WAY high before being bet down into the 50 range. When the dust settled, 18 top-2 seeds failed to make the bracket. This year's number is basically asking: Will there be as many/more upsets in Tecmo XI over Tecmo X, or fewer?)

 

Total Combined Losses for the Remaining Players as The Elite 8 Double Elim Begins:

+/- 0.5

 

(The last two Elite 8s have gone a combined 96-0 up to that point. Only group winners have made it this far. Is this the year a group runner up finally cracks though?)

 

 

Who Scores the Most Points in Opening Double-Elim Play?

Mort +250

Chet +275

Matt V +400

DaBoy +500

Jeff B +750

Field +1000

 

(Last year this bet was a heads-up between Regulator and Chet.  With Regulator out, it opened up to the masses. Very tough one for Vegas to get a handle on. Mort squeaks in as the early morning line favorite. Don't forget he was the #1 seed overall entering the bracket last year, I believe. Chet, obviously, is always a threat to win any bet that involves dominance. Matt V's deep run last year and continued universal success makes him an attractive bet at +400. DaBoy is a wild card. Vegas is very intrigued by Jeff B's recent dominance, as he swept through Round-Robin play at Tundra Bowl by a combined 156-3. The Field is probably the smart money play here with the depth of talent remaining, but history shows that Chet/Mort are the pace-setters in this category annually.)

 

 

At Its Peak, How Many Members of the Orenga Entourage?

+/- 24.5

 

(This destroyed last year's number. This year's +/- is more than double. Important note- this bet only registers NON-PLAYING members of the Posse.)

 


In the Championship-Clinching Game, Point Spread:

Winner -9.5

 

(Fun Fact: In the last 4 clinching games, the winner has won by 12, 11, 10, and 14 points. In games that you assume would be tight because it's the best two players in the world on that day, it appears that fatigue plays a significant role. In a pre-tournament bet, do you anticipate the eventual clinching game to be single digits? The trend says no.)

 

Will there be a group where both the 1 and 2 seeds fail to advance?

Yes +2000

No -1500

 

(Knocking off a 2 seed isn't rare. Only half made it through. Last year only 2 #1's missed the bracket, I believe. Trying to combine them both into one incredible group meltdown is asking a lot. But, lots of value in a Yes bet.)

 


Highest Point Differential Among Opening Round Group Winners:

+/- 83.5

 

(Group winners will play 3 games in the opening round. With a max pt differential each game of 28, that means the largest point differential a group winner can carry in to the bracket is +84. Last year Chet, and I'm sure others, maxed this out. The under is tempting, but history says at least one guy rolls through.)



 

 

Who's got more action or thoughts on these so far?

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Josh mentioned on the main thread, re: 2-seeds, "We don't officially publish that information, though your placement in your group play bracket will be a pretty good indicator."

At least in the past, top seed will be at the top of the bracket (playing in the first game), 2-seed will be at the bottom, playing in the last game of the opening round.

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What about the odds a first timer at Madison reaches single elimination?


 


Also I wonder how the Iowans will do this year. Dotdon won't be there and neither will Donkey Tunch who made an impressive deep run last year as a first timer at Madison.

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Do we know who all the #2 seeds are...thats very debatable in many groups...

 

There is a fairly strong indicator of the #2 seeds in each group, especially day of when you see the first games being played. 

 

The line between #2 and #3 in most cases is so close as to render the seed split moot. 

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Something I was discussing with a few people after last year's tourney, that I'm genuinely curious about as far as any statistical or anecdotal evidence from those who've played in this situation:


 


The way the opening double-elim is set up, I can't remember if it's set in stone on the schedule to have the Group Title game immediately followed by the Consolation game, or if the Title game happens, then the consolation semi-final, then the consolation final. I'm curious about it for a couple reasons-


 


1) Having played in the group title game and lost then immediately sitting back down to play again, I can confirm there's definitely a form of "Tecmo Tilt" (ie- poker) that happens. 5 minutes cool down helps, but it's still pretty hectic.


 


2) On the flip side, is it actually beneficial for the person who wins the consolation semi-final to immediately turn around and play, since they're riding momentum?


 


Do we know how many groups went with the Title/Consolation final vs the Title/Consolation Semi/Consolation final schedule last year, and what the records of those who played in that back-to-back game was?


 


Some might argue that "rest" time doesn't exist once you get to the bracket so it's pointless to worry about, but the major difference there is that in the bracket, those back-to-back-to-back games are played by guys who have won. The only situation in the entire tourney where a guy would potentially have to play IMMEDIATELY following a loss is at the end of the double-elim. This also plays a role in the Final 8 for the same reason. 


 


Basically, is the benefit for guy coming through the losers bracket to immediately play following a win more influential than the detriment to the guy who just lost the title game to play immediately?


 


Thoughts? Anyone got numbers on this? Anyone play in this situation last year and have an opinion?


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Don't really believe in momentum. Haven't been in the situation but I suspect there is not much advantage either way. If there is its likely tiny.  And I would guess that the consolation semifinal winner is the slightly weaker player on average. 

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The way the opening double-elim is set up, I can't remember if it's set in stone on the schedule to have the Group Title game immediately followed by the Consolation game, or if the Title game happens, then the consolation semi-final, then the consolation final. 

 

 

The Winner's Bracket Final (Game K) theoretically happens before the Loser's Bracket Semifinal (Game L), so the loser of the former gets a 1-game break before playing again, this time for his tournament life (Game M). That said, the order isn't set in stone, and I'm sure Game L has preceded Game K before. 

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The only real way I can see there being a form of Tecmo tilt is if you get seriously unlucky to the point of rattling your tecmo soul, and having to turn around and play an opponent who you are not over 50% confident in beating.


 


Fortunately Tecmo, like poker, allows for the better player to win majority of the time. If you are good enough, you shouldn't get rattled.


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Fortunately Tecmo, like poker, allows for the better player to win majority of the time. If you are good enough, you shouldn't get rattled.

 

True you just gotta hope Tecmo doesn't drop a 2 3 offsuit on you two "hands" in a row. 

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2 3 off can be quite powerful ;)

If you're playing PLO8 lol

 

On a side note, I was oh so close to convincing my wife to let me show this weekend.... How that would have stirred things :P

Edited by regulator088
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With Schuk added to the field now, if Group 8 holds and nobody gets shuffled out, that's a brutal group:


-Troy H, clear #1, history speaks for itself.


-DT, really really strong East Coast player making his Madison debut, very likely to make noise.


-Schuk, historically on that low 1/high 2 seed line, made final 32 last year.


-Rob H, 13-11 record in Madison, owns wins over Jimmy B/Flo/Schuk in Madison play.


 


Yowza.


Edited by hoigaard
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(The last two Elite 8s have gone a combined 96-0 up to that point. Only group winners have made it this far. Is this the year a group runner up finally cracks though?)

 

Yes, indeed -- the tournament champion!

Edited by sonofpatbeach
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The only real way I can see there being a form of Tecmo tilt is if you get seriously unlucky to the point of rattling your tecmo soul, and having to turn around and play an opponent who you are not over 50% confident in beating.

 

Fortunately Tecmo, like poker, allows for the better player to win majority of the time. If you are good enough, you shouldn't get rattled.

I definitely felt rattled last year after my first game and everything was a grind after that.

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