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Vegas Prop Bet Odds for Madison Tecmo X: The Gannonball Run


hoigaard

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Made a couple calls to people who know people who know people, and got the early lines on some of the more intriguing prop bets for Tecmo X. Feel free to weigh in on any of these, or if you "hear" (read: "think") of others feel free to post them here.

 

(***Legal reminder/disclaimer that this post/topic should be used for entertainment purposes only***)

 

Tecmo X Champion’s State:

Wisconsin 3-2

Ohio/Indiana/Kentucky 4-1

Minn/Iowa/NE/IL/Dakotas 8-1

Field 10-1

 

(While your first glance would be to look at this and say making Wisconsin nearly a 1-1 favorite is foolish, realize that in the 9 tournaments so far, 7 have been won by a Wisconsinite. Mort (NY) and Sobhi (MN) are the only outsiders to break through, and Sobhi will not be at TecmoX. Beyond the past WI winners, the overall depth from this state is universally known. Just when you think you’ve named all the WI contenders, then you realize, “Oh yeah, that guy could do well, too.” The Ohio/Indiana/Kentucky contingency is strong, with the Millers, Vogts, DaBoy, Psycho, et al, so they are a very worthy #2 choice and would shock nobody to claim the title. Some may look at the Minn/Iowa/NE/IL/Dakotas group at 8-1 as a sucker bet, but based on sheer quantity of competitors coming from those states and the fact that NE/Iowa/Minnesota seemingly host more tournaments than all the rest of the states in the union combined, someone could sneak through. The Field, while a longshot at 10-1, could provide great value. You get Mort and Lou, Toolie, O’Dell, BGBoud, Arncoem, some online West Coast guys, as well as the mysterious Gats… ***Apologies if anyone felt slighted about not getting their named mentioned in this section. Too many to sift through. This was just meant as a jumping-off point, and outside of clicking on every player’s name, Vegas does not know the origins of every contestant)

 

 

Will the Winner of Tecmo X be a Repeat Champion?

Yes +500

No -375

 

(Based on sheer numbers, the odds favor a new champion. But the roster of former champions still in their prime is intimidating. The “Yes” odds took a hit with rumors of Peter K’s tournament departure. The smart money would seem to be that a new champion places their name in the Badger Bowl rafters, but who’s *really* comfortable betting against Chet these days?)

 

 

Of the Top 64 Seeds (#1 & 2 in Each Group), How Many Make it to Single-Elim?

+/- 59.5

 

(No clue what this number was last year, but traditionally this is not a tournament filled with early upsets. The Vegas line allows for 4 “unseeded” players to break through, but do we see a 5th?)


Total Combined Losses for the Remaining Players as The Elite 8 Double Elim Begins:

+/- 1

 

(Last year, only group winners made it to the Elite 8, so there was not a loss among them yet. Vegas nearly made this number 0.5, but a firm 1 was eventually settled on. Can group winners make it two straight years of an undefeated Elite 8 field? To do it, they’ll need to go a combined 48-0 to open Tecmo X.)

 

 

Who Scores the Most Points in Opening Double-Elim Play?

Chet vs Regulator

 

(This stat blew Vegas away: In Tecmo IX, Chet and Regulator both scored 104 points exactly in opening round Double-Elim play, en route to meeting in the finals for the 2nd straight year. Very evenly-matched duo here. Who lays the hammer down harder in the Tecmo X opening round? Vegas gives a slight nod to Regulator, who you have to assume comes into Tecmo X with an enormous chip on his shoulder after 2 straight runner-up finishes. Beware, all who find themselves in his group.)

 

 

How Many Guys Will Wear Drag in an Attempt to Win the $100 “Best Costume” Prize?

+/- 2.5

 

(This is an interesting bet. There are a couple schools of thought- If someone went all-out and dressed in a Cannonball Run style of drag, they’d be almost guaranteed to win the prize based on guts alone. But, if they do, what route do they take? The sexy vixens that eventually win the Cannonball? Or Farrah Fawcett’s character? The 2.5 line Vegas set was under the assumption that two guys would make a “team” costume, leaving the window open for someone else push this over the #. All that said, Vegas likes the under. An awful lot of testosterone among this group.)

 

 

How Many Burt Reynolds Costumes?

+/- 5.5

 

(This line assumes that one of every 50 entrants will attempt a Burt Reynolds costume, many of which may or may not even be inspired by the actual Cannonball Run film. Vegas likes the over and anticipates a Burt Reynolds army wandering the Plaza at Midnight.)

 

 

At What Time will Twitter Lock Chris Vogt’s Account Due to Excessive Tweeting?

+/- 7:45pm

 

(Vegas isn’t sure what time Twitter eventually locked Vogt’s account last year, but with a year under his belt and the fact that Tecmo X will be the most social-media-heavy Madison tourney yet, don’t be surprised if this goes under.)

 

 

At Its Peak, How Many Members of the Orenga Entourage?

+/- 10

 

(Again, Vegas isn't sure on the history of this bet, but if you were to base it on sheer decibel level, you would put the +/- at 1,596 members)

 

 

Who's got more action or thoughts on these so far?

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1.I would take the field for the value play. 


 


2. I would slightly lean towards betting on a new champion. 


 


3. How do we know who the 1 and 2 seeds are in each group? Can't really make a guess on this one.


 


4. I will take the over on losses but its close. 2 would be my line. 


 


Flip a coin for the rest. LOL 


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1. This one is really tough. While there's a lot of guys good enough to reach the Final 8, I'm not sure how many can actually emerge from the double-elim bloodbath that is the Final 8. I'm going with the Field by a nose, primarily because I'd get Mort, Sconnie, Bruddog;  


 


2. I don't think it's a repeat winner. I like these guys' chances a little more than others: Reg, Mort, Sconnie, Matt V. Sconnie and Matt V, in particular, are both overdue for deep runs in Madison. By contrast, I'm overdue for a single-elim heart breaker (no, Awalt, no!). If it's a repeat winner, I think it's Josh. Aside: We're in the process of moving into a new house and g/f temporarily placed my Nebraska Title Belt in the garbage. I saw it, GASPED, and immediately attempted to un-ring the bell. It was too late. The damage had been done. That sort of Tecmo sacrilege less than 2 weeks pre-tournament is death;  


 


3. I think you'll see at least 6-7 groups where someone other than the top 2 seeds advance. There are a number of groups that have at least 3-4 good players that we know of;


 


4. The Orenga entourage will easily exceed 10 this year. Feel sorry for those poor bastards in his group, but the entourage has historically responded well to bribery (i.e. a round of shots); 


 


5. Unless Hoigard was seeking tips on how to troll the world's largest ever Tecmo Super Bowl Tournament, I highly doubt he sought TsbGod's counsel. 


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Champion:  I would take the 8-1 and 10-1.  8-1 because I've got to have hope, and the 10-1 because you get quality group of players at a great price.  Hypothetical wagers:  $50 on each.


 


I'd also take under 59.5.  There will be 2-3 guys AT LEAST that have no tourney experience to advance, and so many groups the difference between 2-3 5 really) is so close that the Tecmo gods will bring this bet home.  Hypothetical wager:  $100


 


Lock of the Century:  Orenga's posse having more than 10.  I will join it if I have to in order to bring home this bet.  Hypothetical wager:  Casino maximum.

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Definitely wasn't TsbGod. Just made a call to my buddy Mickey Dartmouth who runs a massage parlor out there. One of his clients is Augie DiPoto, who is the assistant to Hilton Sports Book statistician on retainer Phil Techman, and may or may not work as a consigliere for Vegas "insider" Antonio Garzona, aka "Tony Wallet."


 


Just got word they're posting a new bet later tonight-


 


In the Championship-Clinching Game, Point Spread:


Winner -9.5


 


(Fun Fact: In the last 3 clinching games, the winner has won by 12, 11, and 10 points *results prior to that are sketchy*. In games that you assume would be tight because it's the best two players in the world on that day, it appears that fatigue may play a significant role. In a pre-tournament bet, do you anticipate the eventual clinching game to be single digits? The trend says no.)


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Too bad Jimmy " The Greek" isn't alive to be the bookie for this thing. It would seem only fitting. I'd be throwing down money like Sammy Davis Jr. during a cross-country automobile race. Here are my prop bets.

Rich Gannon TD passes over/under 5.5

Minnesota sees their fair share of matchups, but Gannon rarely sees the field. He moonballs like Kreig, but has the pass control of Trudeau. Most ppl would rather see their mother in a bukkake video than have to rely on Gannon to lead them on a TD drive. The Tecmo gods may favor a Gannon substitution being that it is the Gannonball Run though.

Kick return TDs during the final 8 tourney over/under .5

Last year Chet's return with "Ironhead" Heyward changed the game vs Daboy and he rode the momentum to a Madison championship. Will someone else get some special teams magic to help carry them to victory? There are only a few returners capable of breaking a kick for a TD, so matchup calls will be a factor. There is also the chance of the return team scooping up a fumble and running to pay dirt.

Highest decibel level reached over/under 136.7

136.7 is the record set by Seattle's 12th man consisting of 60 some thousand people. The Madison attendance will be well short of that, but will be in an enclosed area helping this bet. If Orenga can make a deep run this has a good shot of being the over. Last years loudest roar may have been during the finals halftime show and narrowly missed the 130 mark. More competitors this year means more drunk guys yelling for the cheerleader panty shot.

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Of the Top 64 Seeds (#1 & 2 in Each Group), How Many Make it to Single-Elim?

+/- 59.5

 

(No clue what this number was last year, but traditionally this is not a tournament filled with early upsets. The Vegas line allows for 4 “unseeded” players to break through, but do we see a 5th?)

 

In looking back at last year's groups, it looks like the 59.5 number is pretty high. Of last year's 28 groups, nearly 1/3 (9 groups) were not chalk (i.e. someone other than the 1 and 2 seeds advanced). If something similar occurs this year, we're looking at about 10 groups where someone other than a 1 or 2 seed advances. I did not see any groups where both the 1 and 2 seed failed to advance. 

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In looking back at last year's groups, it looks like the 59.5 number is pretty high. Of last year's 28 groups, nearly 1/3 (9 groups) were not chalk (i.e. someone other than the 1 and 2 seeds advanced). If something similar occurs this year, we're looking at about 10 groups where someone other than a 1 or 2 seed advances. I did not see any groups where both the 1 and 2 seed failed to advance. 

 

VEGAS UPDATE:

 

Of the Top 64 Seeds (#1 & 2 in Each Group), How Many Make it to Single-Elim?

+/- 54.5

 

(Money immediately started pouring in on the OVER after the study of last year's results were posted. Within minutes, Vegas scrambled to move the line. New number allows for 9 unseeded players to advance. The 10th is the tipping point. This is also reassuring to those of us who will inevitably crap their pants in group play. Our misery will enjoy the company.)

Edited by hoigaard
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A couple more prop bets crossed the wire-


 


Highest Point Differential Among Opening Round Group Winners:


+/- 80.5


 


(Group winners will play 3 games in the opening round. With a max pt differential each game of 28, that means the largest point differential a group winner can carry in to the bracket is +84. Many of the groups look like there will be some good matchups across the top level, but there may be a few group winners who plow right through without breaking sweat. The over/under of 80.5 allows for a FG's-worth of breathing room from a "perfect score." Vegas would favor the under, but there could be value in the over.)


 


 


Total Craig "Ironhead" Heyward Kickoff Return TDs In Tournament Play:


+/- 1.5


 


(Ironhead's kick returns might be the best weapon the Saints have. *See: Chet vs DaBoy, 2013.* If we crunch the numbers, the general usage rate for New Orleans in Madison play is around 6.78%. With 479 games on the day, that works out to about 32 Saints games. This line of 1.5 assumes one return on the day is a given. Will we see 2? Especially in the highly competitive field that favors a conservative, out-of-bounds approach? As Josh Holzbauer said at one point in 2013's tourney: "This format is so unforgiving.")


 


 


Total Entrants to be Shut Out During Tournament Play:


+/- 3.5


 


(With 256 entrants, and roughly 113 making their Madison debut, this over/under is more about the law of averages than anything. Presumably you could say "Oh, no way this goes over," but with a quarter of the field only playing 2 games and 8 total quarters, many of those against elite #1-seeds, hey, maybe. 3.5 people out of 256 is 1.37% of the field. Isn't it relatively plausible that the bottom 1.5% of the entrants could fail to score? So why not 1.6% to hit the over? It would not surprise Vegas if the Over just eekes out.)


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1) Not to be biased, but having myself, Ones11 (playing lights out tecmo right now), Daboy, Pyscho, Vogts and a plethora of other qualified contenders, I place my bet on Indiana/Kentucky/Ohio


 


2) F me for causing the giant championship point spread, under 9.5


 


3) Vote Yes for repeat champion (yes this contradicts my position on #1, but how could you not take josh/chet +500?)


 


4) Over 1 loss for elite 8 competition (biggest field yet creates a lot of room for garbage)


 


5) Chet scores the most points (I have been playing poorly lately and only have a handful of games in this year alone)


 


6) Twitter will not lock down C Vogt's account, his blood alcohol content will


 


7) Seriously? Only 10 for Orenga? I'll farm the over (ahhhhhhhhhhalalalalalagagagagaganananananana controller shake)


 


 


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Total Craig "Ironhead" Heyward Kickoff Return TDs In Tournament Play:

+/- 1.5

 

(Ironhead's kick returns might be the best weapon the Saints have. *See: Chet vs DaBoy, 2013.* If we crunch the numbers, the general usage rate for New Orleans in Madison play is around 6.78%. With 479 games on the day, that works out to about 32 Saints games. This line of 1.5 assumes one return on the day is a given. Will we see 2? Especially in the highly competitive field that favors a conservative, out-of-bounds approach? As Josh Holzbauer said at one point in 2013's tourney: "This format is so unforgiving.")

I ran one back on moulds in our epic Atl - NO game last year so that number would have paid the over last year.

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Some results from the available bets:


 


Tecmo X Champion's State: Ohio/Indiana/Kentucky 4-1. Regulator (IN) wins it. The Elite 8 states were WI (Chet, Skunker, Jimmy B, Josh A), OH (Matt V, Chris V), IN (Reg), MI (O'Dell). The Minn/Iowa/NE/IL/Dakotas contingent was not represented, and O'Dell was the only member of "The Field."


 


Winner a Repeat Champion? No -375. Chet made another deep run and Jimmy B's 2 titles made an appearance in the Elite 8 as well, but in the end Madison Tecmo added a new name to the scrolls.


 


Top 1 & 2 Seeds to make the Round of 64: No matter the number, it went way under. Orenga had some notes on this one in the main Madison thread- 3 #1's and 16 #2's did not make it out.


 


Combined Losses For the Elite 8: Under 1. This was an interesting #, but in the end the elite stepped up, and the Elite 8 entered the final stages of play at 48-0.


 


Most Points in Opening Round, Chet vs Regulator: Regulator wins 112-105.


 


How Many Wear Drag In The Costume Contest: I believe this went under 2.5.


 


How Many Burt Reynolds Costumes: Tough call. Many mustaches, but whether they were officially a part of a Burt Reynolds costume is tough to say. No obvious Cannonball Run costume references that I can remember, and certainly not enough to cover the 5.5 line.


 


Twitter Locks C. Vogt's Account At.... Didn't happen (I don't think)! Helps when you make a crazy-deep run. Congrats again to him!


 


# in Orenga's Posse: Way over 10.5. This number was explicitly set up to count just people cheering for Tony who were not playing in the tourney or had no other reason for being there. By my count at one point there were at least 15 who fit that description. And as someone who was playing at the table behind them and played most of my games with some butts in my face and noise at inopportune times, I paid special attention. (***Not mad, btw. I think the posse is the heart and soul of this tournament)


 


Championship Game Point Spread: OVER 9.5. For the 4th straight year, the final game of the tournament is a double-digit affair, thanks to Regulator's 14-0 win.


 


Highest Point Differential among Group Winners: OVER 80.5. Looks like Chet maxed out his scores. I didn't look to see if anyone else did, but all you needed was one guy to go over to win this.


 


Ironhead Heyward Kickoff Return TD's: Unknown. The line was 1.5 and I did not see one returned. Granted there were well over 400 games on the day so it's very likely this happened. Lou took Heyward's opening kickoff down to the 8 against me, but that was the best I saw all day. If there are any unreported Heyward KO Return TDs, please update Vegas.


 


Total Entrants Shut out during Pool Play: Unknown. May need Tony's help with this. I started searching guys who went 0-2 and found 2 guys who went without scores in Tecmo X, but it's tough to look through more. The line was 3.5 and there are 2 confirmed as of now, but this bet is in wait-and-see mode as of this point.

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Too bad Jimmy " The Greek" isn't alive to be the bookie for this thing. It would seem only fitting. I'd be throwing down money like Sammy Davis Jr. during a cross-country automobile race. Here are my prop bets.

Rich Gannon TD passes over/under 5.5

Minnesota sees their fair share of matchups, but Gannon rarely sees the field. He moonballs like Kreig, but has the pass control of Trudeau. Most ppl would rather see their mother in a bukkake video than have to rely on Gannon to lead them on a TD drive. The Tecmo gods may favor a Gannon substitution being that it is the Gannonball Run though.

 

Honestly not sure if I threw a TD pass with Gannon during my Sweet 16 matchup against Orenga or not..I know he was in almost whole 2nd half.

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Ironhead Heyward Kickoff Return TD's: Unknown. The line was 1.5 and I did not see one returned. Granted there were well over 400 games on the day so it's very likely this happened. Lou took Heyward's opening kickoff down to the 8 against me, but that was the best I saw all day. If there are any unreported Heyward KO Return TDs, please update Vegas.

I ran a kick back against Nathan (retro4ever) using Heyward. I came damn close in my previous game to running one back with Heyward--and yes I was the Saints in two consecutive games.

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  • 2 weeks later...

My strategy was in groupplay was to put the saints in the matchup everytime just because I wanted to help get the over 1.5 on heyward returns. Plus I like the team a lot. But I never got to call one all day. It seems I wasnt the only one using this strategy.

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