Let's play: Which Team Would You Pick?

[kamphuna8]

Kierre why don't you think CLE can run on GB though. You can target Harris with sweeps to the top?

Other than that I agree with you.

 

CLE can't run on GB consistently enough (through my experiences) and keirre's right, it doesn't take Harris to stop CLE, its the already slow MS. It can work vs inexperienced players, but doesn't work as well vs the experienced players and definitely not as well as Woodside vs the Cle D. 44MS can really go long upon breaking free compared to the 38 and 31 you get with the Brownies. Just my experience.

[buck]

I'm not a believer in HOU.  I pulled a HOU v BUF back in Chicago '10 against MORT in round of 32.  I was honestly hoping Mort would take HOU.

 

1st two drives: 

Kelso picks off Moon on my side of the field

White fumbles inside 10.

 

Mort grinded (and I mean grinded) with Thermal all day.

I made a run in the 2nd half but could never make up those turnovers.  I just don't trust the pass as much anymore.  I'll take a team that can run the ball any day.

---

same thing knee-deep in '11 Neberaska tourney, feeling good, vs Chet Holzy.  I called MIA v DET, hoping dude would take MIA.  nope.  

again...GRIND.  those MIA safeties are badass, and I kept Barry in check (but could never quite stop him) and I kept all kinds of bullshit alive with Marino tossing sweet Garbage, but I believe I ended up losing 28-21 or something like that.  Might have been by a FG.  

 

---

I made it to the "Elite 8", 2010 Madison He Went to Jerry tourney, I was ripping Everybody apart that day.  But, as the night went on - Coffee was wearing off and they put me on this old-school PoS faded-ass projector big-screen (after having played on little-ass 15-inchers all day).  

Mort's brother is there with their "notebook" talking all kinds of strategy.  With my head totally up my ass, I call PHX v DAL.  Believe it or not, I only lost that by a damn FG.  I grinded Johnny Johnson pretty good.  But Mort was on FIRE that day and could do no wrong.

 

----

 

The thing about these tournaments for me is:  you gotta have physical and mental STAMINA and keep your FOCUS and INTENSITY.  As the day wears on, it's tough to keep the mojo going.  One bad matchup call and it's all over.  (at least the single-elimination tourneys)

Edited February 26, 2013 by buck

[bgboud2]

Mort lost the PhxDal matchup to jimmyb the next year in the title game

[vikingmoe02]

So, I've never met Mort. I just saw him featured in the NFL films Tecmo episode. Is he really that good? Or is he lucky? I've read some mixed reviews on these forums about him.

[vikingmoe02]

Time for Round 2!! (Maybe we'll have a bonus Tailback King round with all PHX matchups!)

 

1. TB - DEN

 

2. SD - RAMS

 

3. CHI - CIN

 

4. JETS - NO

 

5. KC - DET

 

Thoughts?

[bgboud2]

Hell I might just take the "good side" in all of those except for KC-DET where I think DeBerg-Paige exploits Leroy Irvin.

[rmm1976]

GB over CLE - Browns D just awful, a no brainer

MIA over MIN - Safety combo + Marino give them the edge

ATL over PHX - Slight edge to Falcons b/c Rosy stinks

SEA over NE - Pats too anemic at QB and RB, would only take them over Indy

HOU over NYG - Easiest call for me, Oilers offense less likely to stall in this matchup

[rmm1976]

TB over DEN - Elway is bound to lose this one for ya

RAMS over SD - See above, BJ will blow it

CHI over CIN - Despite QB woes da Bears D will get more stops

NYJ over N.O - Close matchup but Jets edge in controllable defenders wins it

K.C over DET - Toughest one to call, Peete can't throw though and Chiefs LBs should get a stop

[bruddog]

I looked at a partial TPC data set I have. Its somewhere between 10-20% of all games played. It does not control for opponent or home/away so there are lots of noisy variables. I'm not sure you can draw much from this based on the last data pt. 

 

In 104 games GB had an average winning percentage of 51% and an average pt differential of 0.48pts. 

 

In 26 games Houston had  an average winning percentage of 69% and an average pt differential of 2 pts. 

 

In 110 games SEA had a winning percentage of 50% and a pt differential of 1.09

 

In 82 games PHX had a winning percentage of 55% and a pt differential of 1.9

 

Unfortunately this last data point shows the limitations of not adjusting for the players

 

in 146 matchups MIN had a winning percentage of 65% and an average pt differential of 5.8 

 

I quick look at the coaches has the more skilled player playing as MIN quite often. 

[vikingmoe02]

TB over DEN - Elway is bound to lose this one for ya

RAMS over SD - See above, BJ will blow it

CHI over CIN - Despite QB woes da Bears D will get more stops

NYJ over N.O - Close matchup but Jets edge in controllable defenders wins it

K.C over DET - Toughest one to call, Peete can't throw though and Chiefs LBs should get a stop

BJ will blow it?

 Was that intended as a dirty pun? lol

[vikingmoe02]

I looked at a partial TPC data set I have. Its somewhere between 10-20% of all games played. It does not control for opponent or home/away so there are lots of noisy variables. I'm not sure you can draw much from this based on the last data pt. 

 

In 104 games GB had an average winning percentage of 51% and an average pt differential of 0.48pts. 

 

In 26 games Houston had  an average winning percentage of 69% and an average pt differential of 2 pts. 

 

In 110 games SEA had a winning percentage of 50% and a pt differential of 1.09

 

In 82 games PHX had a winning percentage of 55% and a pt differential of 1.9

 

Unfortunately this last data point shows the limitations of not adjusting for the players

 

in 146 matchups MIN had a winning percentage of 65% and an average pt differential of 5.8 

 

I quick look at the coaches has the more skilled player playing as MIN quite often. 

That's interesting stuff. I actually picked these matchups based on the "x-factor" rankings from the TPC website. I just tried to pair up the teams with the closest rankings.

[Bad Moon Rison]

1. GB - CLE

This is a pretty equal matchup, IMO, but I think Green Bay has a little bit more on defense.  Plus, you can run the ball a little better with the Majik Man.

 

2. PHX - ATL

At first I thought this was a Phoenix no-brainer, but they are a lot closer than I thought.  I would still go with Phoenix because the most dominant DBs on defense are safeties, which I find easier to use.

 

3. MIN - MIA

The passing game of Miami puts them over the top, in particular Marino.

 

4. NE - SEA

Seattle has Krieg.  New England's D is better.  It's a tossup, but I'd side with Seattle.

 

5. HOU - GIA

I think the Giants are the better team, but Houston's pass attack could probably penetrate that stalwart D.  I'd say it's a push with the slight edge to Houston.

[philleyOphish]

1. TB - DEN

DEN

 

2. SD - RAMS

RAMS

 

3. CHI - CIN

CHI

 

4. JETS - NO

JETS

 

5. KC - DET

KC

 

 

 

 

What do you think about these:

 

MIA - KC

 

PHI - WAS

 

MIA - DET

 

PHI - RAI

 

PHI - BUF

 

RAMS - KC

 

DAL - ATL

[vikingmoe02]

Nice matchups! Here's my take.

 

MIA - KC: I give the slight edge to KC, but I wouldn't mind getting stuck with MIA in this matchup.

 

PHI - WAS: This Philly all the way for me. Easy choice IMHO.

 

MIA - DET: Yikes. I'd just take the "good" side. I'd be happy with either one here.

 

PHI - RAI: Raiders for me for sure. Philly's D has limitations that Bo could exploit with the right playbook.

 

PHI - BUF: I'd chose the Bills. They're the most well rounded team, and Philly is a one trick show (good trick though).

 

RAMS - KC: Give me the Chiefs! Too many vulnerabilities on the Rams D compared to KC.

 

DAL - ATL: I don't like them personally, but I'd have to take the Boys here. Solid secondary and LBs can counter Rison, Rozier, and Collins.

[bob sacamano]

Ugh soooo annoying.  I had a very lengthy response to this thread, but then accidentally wiped it out by clicking someones name in the chat, which in turn sent my to this persons profile page, and I couldn't get it back!  Grrrrrr.

 

But awesome topic, and much less content from me than I wanted to...

 

MIA over KC - Marino v.s. DBs that can't stop him.  

 

PHI over WAS - No offense Jay, but this is a real bad call here.  Chet or Regulator, last yrs winner and runner up, couldn't give anyone in the top 50 Randall and keep it close enough.  PHI D is just too much for the Skins QB, and run game as well.

 

MIA over DET - This one still stings.  Back story:  Sweet 16, Madison VI, v.s. Troy Hansen, Milwaukee.  CLE/NYJ, a QB Browns TD toss, puts me up 14 to end the 3rd.  Troy gets up, shakes my hand, and says GG.  I reluctantly talk him off the ledge, and beg of him to just finish the game.  He says ok, you're right...  Puts together a looooong drive, despite being down 2 scores, pounding the rock against my prevent defense to cut it to 7.  QB Browns first snap, an errant throw, picked off by drone McMillan.  Blair Thomas ties it up, one last heave for me, OT.  Troy wins the toss, and puts together, yet another lengthy, 3 yds and a cloud of dust type of drive, Leahy kicks the chippy GW from 45 out.

 

Fast forward, 2 yrs later.  Sweet 16.  Opponent:  None other than the same, Troy Hansen.  Knowing he loves to pound the rock, having ran it 25 times it seemed in the final two quarters of play in our previous matchup, I know I don't want to give him a RB.  So I call MIA/DET, assuming he'll take the better overall team in Miami, succeeding in the goal of not giving him a RB.  He does in fact take Miami.  And again, he does pound the rock, to the tune of about 40 attempts - without losing one fumble!

 

In hindsight, I likely call a much too conservative game, as many noted in the online broadcast of the game to the tborg users - only rushing Barry, I believe, just 4 times!  Dan harpoons me in the final seconds from about 25 yards out, and drop yet another heartbreaker to Troy Hansen, 17-13.  I'm going to get him next time.  I promise you that!  

 

As far as the matchup goes.  Miami better offensively, and defensively.  Take the Dolphins and lay the points.

 

RAI over PHI ...

 

BUF over PHI - Each of these are just about the same.  Despite having a good defense, Philly won't be able to stop either team offensively.  

 

KC over RAM - DeBerg should be able to attack this less than defense, while the Chief D should be able to hold their own against the potent Rams aerial attack.

 

DAL over ATL - The Falcons can be so versatile with the star power of Deion and Rison, but the Cowboys just have more depth on both sides of the ball, including the better RB and QB.

 

TB over DEN - Vinny won't kill you against a team with a low INT, while Haddix will eat Elway's babies.  B.Hump isn't enough to overcome the advantages Tampa possesses. 

 

RAMS over SD - Tough call.  I'll take the better QB, as Tolliver will likely cost you.

 

CHI over CIN - You'd think I'd love Fulcher against Tomczak/Harbaugh.  However, Offset I against Fulcher works beautifully, especially if Francis isn't able to contain it.

 

JETS over NO - Arguably the better offense of the two, but the most important thing is, Byrd/Clifton/McMillan are the top 3 defenders in this matchup.

 

KC over DET - Close one.  KC should be able to handle Barry and the offense better than Detroit is at stopping KC's.

 

CLE over GB - Why is everyone talking about pounding the rock with Mack so much?  Throw the MF'n pill!  QB Browns gets into good, it's lights out.

 

ATL over PHX - Despite being the better overall team, PHX can really play down to it's competition.  Let's call it versatile, in a bad way.  Rison and Deion > PHX Safeties

 

MIA over MIN - Not as close as many would think.  Browner isn't the uber stud, and is just a touch too slow for Marino's rocket arm.  MIA safety duo, should be able to handle AC, while Offerdahl dominates the run game.

 

SEA over NE - Battle of the useable DL.  Close one, but I will usually take the better QB.  In addition:  Krieg, Jacob Green, 3; 38ms RBs  >  NE WRs, Agnew, Lippett.  

 

NYG over HOU - Houston is by far the 2nd best team in the game, and as someone mentioned, quite possibly worthy of a ban.  However, the Giants match up extremely well with them.  Depending on the opponent, I'm more likely to take the deeper team, over a one dimensional crew, with a self-inflicting run game, in such a strong matchup.

Edited February 27, 2013 by brodell

[vikingmoe02]

Great post, Brodell.

 

I love the story about your games vs Troy. You probably did the right thing in "talking him off the ledge" and having him finish the game, but I don't think I would have done the same thing. If you're in the sweet 16 of a tournament and you quit with a quarter left to play, that's fine with me. I mean, it's Tecmo. Stuff happens. Fumbles, bad passes, you name it. I probably would have let him quit and walk away, and let him regret it for the rest of the year. Quitters don't deserve your charity. Just my opinion, but I do still think what you did was admirable.

[bob sacamano]

Well, we've since discussed the situation, now that we see each other and ultimately end up playing each other each and every year....but, from what he tells me, he thought it was the end of the game, and not the end of the 3rd.  So it wasn't as bad as I made it sound, but I definitely thought he was conceding, since he made no mention of it at the time.

[rmm1976]

Well, we've since discussed the situation, now that we see each other and ultimately end up playing each other each and every year....but, from what he tells me, he thought it was the end of the game, and not the end of the 3rd.

 

You did the nice thing, but it sounds like he didn't deserve it if he seriously came back with that excuse!  I hope he lost in the next round each year...

[vikingmoe02]

I agree. I don't but that excuse. If that's what he thought he would have said so in he moment. He's just trying not to look like a quitter. At best, he didn't have his head in the game if he thought the game was over.

[bob sacamano]

Well why would it be an intense, heated moment w me scoring to end the game, already up 7? I would have been doing my damnedest to play keep away in the final seconds, since point diff is thrown out the window once you've advanced out of group play. That's why I was surprised when he told me that a yr, maybe even 2 yrs later.

[bob sacamano]

Love this game!  Here are a handful more.  Who you got!?

 

ATL - NYJ

 

CIN - KC

 

PIT - PHX

 

IND - NE

 

DEN - MIN

 

[holzy11]

Before we ban Houston, as some have imprudently suggested, it might be worth noting that the Giants are 8-5 lifetime against Hou in the tourney. That obviously doesn't tell the whole story, but the online community has always overrated Hou. Hou is also 7-14 against SF, 2-3 v. KC, just 5-4 v. Phi, and 15-8 against Buf. Oh yeah, and these records were generated while Givins was able to carry the football. Hardly ban-worthy. 

[TecSpectre]

Bad players are always quick to ban things

[holzy11]

As a tournament organizer, it'd be very difficult to justify banning a team that is just 51-46 (.526) in tournament play, particularly one that has now had its running game largely neutered.  

[Rabbi Shmuley]

Love this game!  Here are a handful more.  Who you got!?

 

ATL - NYJ

 

CIN - KC

 

PIT - PHX

 

IND - NE

 

DEN - MIN

JETS

CINCY

PITT

NE

Denver: I think this Den vs Minn is a great matchup. Tough decision there.