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Madison, WI - 03/02/13 - TecmoIX: Marino Royale


holzy11

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No. Walter says it in the Big Lebowski which is my reference.

 

 

DONNY
Wahooo...I'm slammin' 'em tonight
You guys are dead in the water!!

As the Donny walks back to the scoring table he points to
another team in black bowling shirts--the Cavaliers--that
shares the lane.

Walter, just arriving, is carrying a leatherette satchel in
one hand and a large plastic carrier in the other.

WALTER
Alright! Way to go, Donny! If you will it, it
is no dream.

 

DUDE
You're fucking twenty minutes late, man.
What the fuck is that?

WALTER
Theodore Herzel.

DUDE
Huh?

WALTER
State of Israel. If you will it,
Dude, it is no dream.

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I am one of those that really look forward to watching any broadcasting of the event. I undderstand other things are of higher priority but appreciate any broadcasting that might happen. This would be the 3rd year to watch for me.

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No. Walter says it in the Big Lebowski which is my reference.

 

 

DONNY

Wahooo...I'm slammin' 'em tonight

You guys are dead in the water!!

As the Donny walks back to the scoring table he points to

another team in black bowling shirts--the Cavaliers--that

shares the lane.

Walter, just arriving, is carrying a leatherette satchel in

one hand and a large plastic carrier in the other.

WALTER

Alright! Way to go, Donny! If you will it, it

is no dream.

 

DUDE

You're fucking twenty minutes late, man.

What the fuck is that?

WALTER

Theodore Herzel.

DUDE

Huh?

WALTER

State of Israel. If you will it,

Dude, it is no dream.

Well played. I am not as conversant in the Big Lebowski as I should be.
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I am one of those that really look forward to watching any broadcasting of the event. I undderstand other things are of higher priority but appreciate any broadcasting that might happen. This would be the 3rd year to watch for me.

There is going to be something. And, if we're lucky* when I get knocked out, I'll be providing my always riveting color commentary on the day's action.

*be aware that "lucky" may be unlucky for your ears

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Anyone else bored this Friday night? Need a break from Mar1no Royal3 training? I did some number-crunching.


 


I wanted to see what the general rate of team selection has been in the Madison Tourney, as well as team winning percentages. So, here's what I got:


 


Data collection information- According to the tourney history on the website, the current method of team selection started in Tecmo VI, so for this study, I only looked at Tecmo VI, VII, and VIII. I chose not to look at tournaments from other cities because I wanted to limit this strictly to Madison (you can be certain to a strong degree that most of these numbers would hold across multiple tourneys). From my shitty math, there were 796 games played in  Tecmo VI, VII, and VIII. To get a reasonable sample size w/ 90% accuracy, I needed about 200 data points (roughly 25%). I chose, at random, various guys' results from those tourneys (making sure not to duplicate. Made-up example: Joe Blow beats Jim Balls in Tecmo VII. I would not count that same result if I was tallying Jim Balls results).


 


Things this study did not factor in- Strength of player, Who called the matchup, Early-round games vs late-tourney games (many instances teams weren't listed in the results, so I couldn't use them), Controller 1/2, etc. This was strictly "What were the two teams selected, and who won that particular game?"


 


Results (let me repeat: This was FAR from an exact science. It's possible a number or team was screwed up here or there, but all in all, it gives you the general idea of what you're looking for)-


 


Total # of Uses:


 


Total Uses (Usage %)... 


SD 24 (11.62%)


Min 23 (11.14%)


Cin 22 (10.66%)


Den 22 (10.66%)


Dal 22 (10.66%) 


Wash 21 (10.16%) 


Det 20 (9.68%) 


Rams 20 (9.68%) 


Jets 18 (8.72%) 


Phx 18 (8.72%) 


Atl 17 (8.24%) 


Mia 16 (7.74%) 


TB 16 (7.74%) 


Cle 15 (7.26%) 


KC 14 (6.78%) 


Chi 14 (6.78%) 


NO 14 (6.78%) 


Pit 12 (5.82%) 


GB 12 (5.82%) 


Buf 11 (5.32%) 


NYG 10 (4.84%) 


Phi 10 (4.84%) 


NE 9 (4.36%) 


Oak 8 (3.88%) 


Sea 8 (3.88%) 


SF 7 (3.38%) 


Ind 5 (2.42%)


Hou 5 (2.42%)


 


 


Winning % of Teams:


Wins (Win %)


SF 6 (.857) 


TB 13 (813) 


Phi 8 (.800) 


Pit 8 (.667)


Buf 7 (.636) 


Rams 12 (.600) 


Hou 3 (.600) 


Cin 13 (.591) 


SD 14 (.583) 


GB 7 (.583) 


NO 8 (.571) 


Min 13 (.565) 


NE 5 (.556) 


Cle 8 (.533) 


Wash 11 (.524)


Phx 9 (.500) 


KC 7 (.500) 


Chi 7 (.500) 


Dal 10 (.455) 


Det 8 (.400) 


Ind 2 (.400) 


Mia 6 (.375) 


NYG 3 (.300) 


Atl 5 (.294) 


Sea 2 (.250) 


Den 5 (.227) 


Jets 4 (.222) 


Oak 1 (.125)


 


 


Takeaways:


-You could reasonably say the Jets and Denver are the most over-valued teams in the game based on these results. Denver only had 5 wins in 22 games, while the Jets had 4 in 18.


-The most under-valued teams? Point towards Philly, Pit, and Buf. They were involved in 10, 12, and 11 matchups apiece (at least 17 teams rank ahead of them in usage), and hold winning %s of .800, .667, and .636.


-People are just as hesitant to put Houston in a matchup as they are Indy.


-The Rams surprised me being so high on the usage list. 20 instances, ranking 7th.


-I believe there were 3 ties in the study.


 


Curious if any of you notice little nuggets hidden in the numbers at all? Anything jump out at you? I don't think there's any earth-shattering information in here, but I do find the numbers interesting to look at.


Edited by hoigaard
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Very informative data gathering session hoigaard!  While the Jets (including the Broncos) definitely stood out to me as having a surprisingly low return on investment, so do teams such as the Falcons, Giants, and Dolphins.  And this data was gathered when you could use Rison at RB2, which is now no longer the case.  I wonder how this will effect the data.  You wouldn't think the 25% random grabbing of results would skew the data as a whole, but I think there is a decent possibility that it did in a couple of these instances.  Etiher way, nice work man!


 


< Knobbe, nice article find man!  How far is Madison from LA btw?  I imagine there will be some back seat Tecmo rocking throughout that trip!


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Tourney organizers - question regarding advancing out of group play...

 

Each region has 7 groups of 8 players.  7 groups, with a winner and runner up advancing = 14 per region.  14 x 4 regions = 48 players.  The bracket portion of the tournament will begin with 56 participants, right?  How will the other 8 participants be determined?  Will these kind of be 8 wild card spots, who all, for all intents and purposes finished 3rd within their group?  Just looking for a clearer picture.  My apologies if somehow I missed this in the rules, or it's been answered before.

 

According to my University of Nebraska degree, 14*4 = 56

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