Lamefest

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Lamefest last won the day on May 23 2015

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  1. Look at that - nice. I'll have to enter the real target stats from 1992 to 1997. It is just Offensive Players. There's one other thing I forgot to mention that may have some value to others. I went through the pain of taking the 1987 stats and backing out all stats from the strike weeks. This removed all the scab players and right-sized the stats for the guys that racked up stats in games with mostly scabs like Charles White and J.T. Smith. I'll probably re-post after I piece in the correct targets from 1992 to 1997 and take a look at the performance of the model.
  2. I complied this spreadsheet a while back, and I figured it may be helpful for those looking for an organized resource of player stats for attribute setting. It should be every player stat of every team from 1978-2006. Why those years? I chose this for my own editing because I thought it represented a solid consistent period in the NFL. There's an influx of better player stats in 2006. Also, changes to defensive passing rules in 2007 really changed the statistical landscape going forward. 1978 was the first year of 16 game and was also a year with significant passing rules changes that really effected the statistical landscape. Things to note on spreadsheet: Player numbers are listed, which is super helpful Player weight is listed All return stats are included I modeled target data from 1978-1997 based on stats from 1998-2006. The model's R-squared came in 0.98 and all variables had significance under 0.0001 so it's pretty solid Now if only there was a spreadsheet with some sort of Face values.... Happy Editing! 1978-2006 Master Data.xlsx
  3. I'm taking some Grad classes at UW-Milwaukee. One class I took this semester is Analytic Models for Managers, where we got to use a pretty helpful statistical modeling program called JMP. For my Final Project, we had to find a problem and database and build a model to help answer the question. At the risk of the Professor having no clue what the hell I was talking about, I decided to do my project on a Tecmo related topic. I figured I'd see if I could find any sort of reliable formula for Defensive player attributes by building an exploratory model on the 1990 statistics and TSB Running Power attribute. I wanted to post the paper here just because no one outside of this community probably knows what the hell I'm talking about and some may find it helpful in their ROM editing. After finishing the paper, I played around with it a bit more and tightened it up a bit. The final model actually has an R-square value of 0.562 which is much larger than I'd ever anticipate. While there's still a fair amount of RP unexplained by the model, using it would give a starting point for pain-in-the-ass Defensive attributes for seasons before mid-2000s. I think this gives a pretty good idea at which statistics had how much influence on the programmers as they determined attributes. While there's still a fair amount of RP unexplained by the model, using it would give a starting point for pain-in-the-ass Defensive attributes for seasons before mid-2000s. The formula would look like this (Y/N are 1/0 variables): Defensive RP = 49.79 + 4.965*(1990 Pro Bowl Y/N) + 5.687*(1989 Pro Bowl Y/N) - 0.003923*(Team Pass Yards Allowed) - 0.002814*(Team Rush Yards Allowed) + 0.6427*(Sacks*Defensive Tackle Y/N) + 0.7969*(Sacks*Rush End Y/N) + 0.8829*(Sacks*Linebacker Y/N) + 1.421*(Interceptions*Conerback Y/N) + 1.093*(Interceptions*Safety Y/N) + 4.975*(TDs*Cornerback Y/N) I'm going to try my hand at other attributes before my temporary license on this program runs out. I'll post if I get through any more. Grunze_Project.docx
  4. Not me. I'm going wherever you are so Tuggle's and I can try endlessly to microwave a frozen pizza near you. It's gonna work damn it! It just needs more time!
  5. No joke? That's awesome. Great question Buck. I've got three systems but am down to only two controllers that don't have mushy A buttons from decades of Tecmo grapple tapping. I'm definitely ordering these.
  6. Thanks again Jon for putting this altogether. Loved the nine-man round robins and they went about as smooth as could have been hoped. Ben, Matt, and Justin - it was a pleasure being speed bump in your roads to the Final Four. Looking forward to the November tourney.
  7. So...I'm back on this again. I'm just about done making a 2015 post-season rom, and I built my attributes with the idea that I would figure this out....I haven't. After much searching, I have no idea what the "value for RP" would be nor do I know which exact hex location I would put it nor am I able to find anything that can explain it in terms I could even remotely understand. I do know this. I've set these values in HXD to this to make the returner's MS to actual player MS. Again, no idea what any of it means. I just know what it does not why it does it. 0x08100 to 00 48 EC EF E4 DF FE FF 0x00AADD to B1 00 00 EF E4 DF FE FF FF Can anyone tell me which of these things I would change to what to make the game use the actual player's RP as his MS? I really think this will make dedicated returners a little better as to not give them too much Offensive value.
  8. I generally agree with you. Teams are a little caught up in generating big stats to generate marketing dollars. It's still a copy cat league and things are cyclical (when the rules stay the same). As the teams start stocking their defenses with coverage LBs and more CBs than Safeties, the smart teams will start implementing more power offenses again....that is unless the NFL creates even more WR friendly rules to prevent this....which they will.
  9. I attribute it to the death of the fullback being used as a runner and the fullback being used scarcely even as a blocker. Teams are defaulting more to using an extra tight end for blocking and therefore using variations of the broken I or the TE as an H-back rather than rostering a FB. To Buck's point, teams are using single and no back sets more than ever. I don't know that it's a team's decision for gaudy numbers rather than teams seeing more opportunity in taking advantage of the continuously more insane rules preventing DBs to play actual pass defense. I guess I think it's moreso the NFLs conscious decision to make the rules help generate ridiculous passing stats rather than to OC's being stupid.
  10. Sounds like you have the auto skip in the schedule set to a week farther than the one your team's currently in. Try setting it to the current week and changing it after each game.
  11. Don't you mean Chronic-ly?
  12. Lamefest

  13. Funny. That was the first place I checked after I perused the useless new PFF data. I was really into Football Outsiders before I came across PFF. They had cool stuff before anyone else. I even bought their Pro Football Prospectus back in like 2007. At the time they were like the only football answer to Bill James.
  14. Oh I have a rather complex rating method that I've developed over the years - using stats only found on PFF which now makes my spreadsheets worthless. Creating ratings for WRs using drops, snaps in route, average reception depth or a QB on Yards in Air and Yards if Drops were Caught just adds more context and really aids in ensuring that team balance. I'm sure I'll get over it in a few days and get back to using Pro Football Reference. At least they finally have target data.
  15. So I've always used Pro Football Focus to do my attribute rating of players and depth charts for ROMs. Their stats have always been phenomenal, especially their Snap data. I was mega excited to get rolling on a post-season 2015 ROM. I also just completed a comprehensive rating system of all the Offensive Players from 2007-2014. I'm ready to get rolling on the Defensive Players for a series of ROMs that would have player ratings that all coincided. Just went to renew my subscription to their Premium Stats, and the Premium Stats are no longer available. They had some other "Player Grades" option. They did disclose that it wasn't premium stats, but the screenshot they showed had some snap data and 1-100 Player Ratings. I figured this would be better than nothing, so I slapped $20 down for it. It's terrible. It's ratings don't even seem to correlate to their old ratings. They're obviously not cumulative of the season as Le'Veon Bell and Marshawn Lynch are the top two RBs. I get why they did it. Their stats are world class and I'm sure people were seriously taking advantage of the cheap access. I'm just super devastated. Not to mention stupid ass PFF just took me for $20 with their ridiculous "Player Grades" access. First the final Madison news and now this? My Tecmo world is crumbling around me. Anyways, a word to the wise. If you use PFF at all, don't buy the "Player Ratings."