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holzy11

Pass Control vs. INT's in double coverage

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Does anyone know how a second defender increases the percentage of an incompletion or interception? From reviewing an old thread viewtopic.php?f=5&t=7663&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&hilit=pass+control+and+interception)

and from reading the game FAQ (http://www.gamefaqs.com/console/nes/file/587686/44195),

I know that it compares Pass Control + Receptions - INT's for one defender and then for the second defender if necessary.

Let's say I bring Carrier in coverage vs. Jerry. Joe and Jerry have a combined 162 versus Carrier's 81. Using the chart in the FAQ, Carrier has only a 7% INT chance. If Lemuel Stinson is there as well, however, what is my INT chance? Is it Carrier's 7% INT chance + Stinson's 3% INT chance (again using the FAQ)? What is the calculation? I guess this is a probability question more than anything. Thanks.

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I think its just rolled twice right? Correct me if I'm wrong....

Using the tecmoworksheet.....

For Carrier against Rice and Montana, he would have:

62%Deflect 32%Catch 5%INT

Stinson would then get a second roll of:

60%Deflect 39%Catch 1%INT

Or does it multiply to together????

Either way....I know that this is ofcourse considering its an perfect pass to the receiver.... JJs, and rushed passes, and even those bullshit "errant" passes..... don't really apply.

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If it work like true probility then its 1-(probCarrier*probStinson) which would make it a 9.8% chance.

shouldn't the two probabilities be added instead of multiplied since it's an OR situation?

7/100 + 3/100

Also, i'm confused on how you got 1-(7/100*3/100) to be 9.8%

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Bruddog, I'm not sure how you did your calculation. 1-(7% X 3%) does not equal 9.8%. Are we using the same numbers? Also, isn't the probability of two mutually exclusive events the Prob (A U :?: or Prob( event A) + Prob(event :?:?

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I'm not sure you just add the numbers either because if you add the incompletion %'s for Carrier and Stinson (to determine the incompletion percentage), you end up with 120 (61+59). Again, I'm using the FAQ Table.

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AverageTSB, you're right they are mutually exclusive events so the chance of an INT is just the addition of the probabilities. My bad.

This means Elway 31pc throwing into double coverage to a 69rec Wr covered by Carrier and Gayle would have a 78% chance of being picked off if the DB's are in the right place.

On long JJ's I don't think both DB's come into play very often but I cant be sure without running a lot of tests. Maybe jstout has done more testing with this.

holzy11 the incompletion% isn't additive like int% is...

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This means Elway 31pc throwing into double coverage to a 69rec Wr covered by Carrier and Gayle would have a 78% chance of being picked off if the DB's are in the right place.

According to your spreadsheet:

PC: 31

REC: 69

INT: 81 (66% Incomplete, 0% Receiver Catch, 34% Interception)

INT: 56 (72% Incomplete, 7% Receiver Catch, 21% Interception)

Would that be 38% Incomplete, 7% Receiver Catch, 55% Interception if both defenders are standing there?

(I haven't spent the time to examine how it's written in code, so I'm assuming that my assumption about this situation is wrong.)

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Because the code only does the double check for int if there are 2 dbs (according to my understanding). Jstout correct me if I'm wrong.

The logic is as follows:

Check for int first DB (RE to SS order)

Check for int second DB (RE to SS order)

else incompletion (for this one i'm assuming it uses the best db but im not sure. Maybe it just uses the closest one or the one that comes first in the RE to SS order)

else reception

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would that mean then it would be as follows for the previous situation?:

Check for int first DB (RE to SS order) - 34%

Check for int second DB (RE to SS order) - 21%

else incompletion (for this one i'm assuming it uses the best db but im not sure. Maybe it just uses the closest one or the one that comes first in the RE to SS order) - 66%

else reception - 100%

of course, once it hits a 'true', it stops the branch structure

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lol, you guys really need to check your math.

NOTE: It checks 2 defenders in order of RE to SS (SS is always last).

Using your numbers here (Gayle would be checked first then Carrier):

INT: 56 (72% Incomplete, 7% Receiver Catch, 21% Interception)

INT: 81 (66% Incomplete, 0% Receiver Catch, 34% Interception)

The game would do:

72% Deflect, 7% Catch, 21% Interception (if catch move to 2nd defender).

So there is a 7% chance it moves to Carrier

66% Deflect, 0% Catch, 34% Interception.

66%*7% = 4.62%, 0%*7% = 0%, 34%*7% = 2.38%

Both would be 76.62% Deflect, 0% Catch, 23.38% Interception

Using the other set (Stinson and Carrier vs Montana and Rice):

60%Deflect 39%Catch 1%INT

62%Deflect 32%Catch 5%INT

60% Deflect, 39% Catch, 1% INT

39% chance it goes to Carrier

62% Deflect, 32% Catch, 5% INT

62%*39% = 24.18%, 32%*39% = 12.48%, 5%*39% = 1.95%

Both would be 84.18% Deflect, 12.48% Catch, 2.95% INT

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Just an observation on this subject. To keep a pass from being completed it doesn't matter, but to intercept it greatly helps to have a db in cb1 position in the case of double coverage. Now I understand why if bubby throws one over the middle and I get Carrier there in time the ball just boinks away, when you would think it had to be intercepted. The stupid lb knocks it away before carrier can get his hands on it.

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