Randy Moss

Passing Game Ratings

54 posts in this topic

The ghost arrow: in the formula pc+rec-int=X , where is the "rec" number drawn from (which wr) if you press the A button right after you throw it so that the ball is not thrown to the reciever with the arrow over him?

Malferds, I loaded up my rom and did the ghost arrow and the REC is the receiver the ball is being thrown to and not the receiver with the arrow.

It does appear the game is using a sprite hit function to determine who can catch the ball then grabbing the numbers. Basically, that is how it knows what defenders are there at the reception or if the pass was uncatchable from being errant.

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A few interesting numbers from this finding:

A tecmo rating combination of PC and REC of 126 (Ex. 63PC and 63REC) is th threshold for which a dropped pass will not occur if the WR is wide open. Every drop in REC or PC results in a 2% increase in the chance the ball will be dropped down to maximum of 30% the ball is dropped with 6PC 06 REC.

Another surpising stragegy that comes out of this is the following which is also useful with the 63 63 threshold. A 63 pc 63rec combo is a good target for LB defenders with 19,25 int. You can pass without fear of INT and get a catch 42-44% of the time.

I worked up a spreadhseet i can share which will calculate the percantages of deflection %, catch %, and INT% based on the tecmo rating.

HSTL based on average values: Deflect 66% Catch 23% INT 11%

WTL based on average values: Defelect 70% Catch 12% INT 18%

These numbers ring very true to me. We've seen about a 3% increase in INT% and about a 4-5% decrease in completion %. Based on these theoretical values it looks like people throw into coverage on average about 50% of the time.

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I worked up a spreadhseet i can share which will calculate the percantages of deflection %, catch %, and INT% based on the tecmo rating.

Please share. :D

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The randomness of the game doesn't allow you to throw 100 passes and have it come out 6 ints, 44 deflections, 50 receptions. You can only give a percentage chance of what will happen. This means that you could throw 100 passes and have 100 ints.

My tests (100 passes each):

100 PC + 100 REC - 6 INT (Total x83): High x82, Low x41, Average x62

6 PC + 6 REC - 100 INT (Total x29): High x28, Low x14, Average x1D

I'm sorry, I don't understand any of this. Could you just tell me for your 100 passes, how many were catches, deflections, and interceptions in each case?

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Given a 81 pc qb and 69 rec WR what is the lowest the int can be in order for there to be an int and also what are the completion numbers on 19, 25, and 31 ints?

A tecmo rating combination of PC and REC of 126 (Ex. 63PC and 63REC) is th threshold for which a dropped pass will not occur if the WR is wide open. Every drop in REC or PC results in a 2% increase in the chance the ball will be dropped down to maximum of 30% the ball is dropped with 6PC 06 REC.

Another surpising stragegy that comes out of this is the following which is also useful with the 63 63 threshold. A 63 pc 63rec combo is a good target for LB defenders with 19,25 int. You can pass without fear of INT and get a catch 42-44% of the time.

I worked up a spreadhseet i can share which will calculate the percantages of deflection %, catch %, and INT% based on the tecmo rating.

HSTL based on average values: Deflect 66% Catch 23% INT 11%

WTL based on average values: Defelect 70% Catch 12% INT 18%

These numbers ring very true to me. We've seen about a 3% increase in INT% and about a 4-5% decrease in completion %. Based on these theoretical values it looks like people throw into coverage on average about 50% of the time.

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HELLO SHIRLEY!

56INT although I'm not sure if that applies to picked plays or not.

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More info from jstout. Turns out I was wrong about double coverage. Granted both defenders have to be sufficiently close and deflection is still the most likely outcome.

Double coverage: Same equation as 1 defender. It checks the first defender it finds over the receiver (RE to SS order) and does the check. If INT or deflection than it does that. If not, then it checks the 2nd defender it finds (RE to SS order) and then does the check and the result is the final outcome. It doesn't check for more than 2.

For a reciever with no defender: It does Pass Control + Reception=total. Then a random number adjust. Possible outcomes Total-1 to (Total/2) and then if 4F or more a catch and if not then dropped.

Note: any combination that adds up to 126 in tecmo skill points (ex 63pc 63 rec) will mean your WR should never drop a wide open pass that isn't overthrown or errant. For a 06 pc to 06 rec you would expect a 30% drop rate.

A jumping defender with no receiver near him: does Pass Control - Interception=total. Then random number adjust. Possible range = total-1 to total/2. If 0F or more than nothing, if 03 to 0E than a deflection, else an INT

Interesting note: this means a db 3 notches higher has a 50% chance of jump picking the qb with no WR nearby. And 4+ notches higher = 100% chance of jump picking with no Wr nearby. A DB 2 notches higher will only be able to deflect. This comfrims a lot of observed theories.

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Here are the locations for the hex compares

QB vs DB only:

DB whiff threshold: x29C9A default: x0F
DB INT threshold: x29C9E default: x03

Standing still reception comparison: x29D7A DEFAULT:4F

QB+WR vs DB comparison:

*Note all of these must be changed at the same time.

INT threshold 29D8C,29D9F,29DB2 DEFAULT: x33

CATCH threhold 29D90, 29DA4, 29DB6 DEFAULT: x50

 

OVERTHROW INT THRESHOLD (triple check)

0x29DD5, 0x29DE4, 0x29DEF                           Default 0x0E

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CAn we move this to the hacking section?

I have a hard time finding this thread every time someone asks a question about it. Plus it really belongs there anyway.

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Is it possible to do a simple hack that uses Avoid Pass Block for the JJ INTs while still using PC (or AP with hack) for the completion/incompletion/interception on other plays?

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Bruddog,


 


In your spread sheet is the value in cell J11 (79) 4F in hex (= 79, for Standing still reception comparison: x29D7A) or 50 (= 80-1, for CC CATCH threhold 29D90, 29DA4, 29DB6)?


 


I think it's 50 for the CC value, but I'm not sure.  Also, why is cell J9 set to 50?  33 in hex = 51.  H10 also has the same 'issue', where 03 should be 3, but the spreadsheet reads 2.  This is not the case for H11, however.  Is there a reason for this?


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More info from jstout. Turns out I was wrong about double coverage. Granted both defenders have to be sufficiently close and deflection is still the most likely outcome.

Double coverage: Same equation as 1 defender. It checks the first defender it finds over the receiver (RE to SS order) and does the check. If INT or deflection than it does that. If not, then it checks the 2nd defender it finds (RE to SS order) and then does the check and the result is the final outcome. It doesn't check for more than 2.

For a reciever with no defender: It does Pass Control + Reception=total. Then a random number adjust. Possible outcomes Total-1 to (Total/2) and then if 4F or more a catch and if not then dropped.

Note: any combination that adds up to 126 in tecmo skill points (ex 63pc 63 rec) will mean your WR should never drop a wide open pass that isn't overthrown or errant. For a 06 pc to 06 rec you would expect a 30% drop rate.

A jumping defender with no receiver near him: does Pass Control - Interception=total. Then random number adjust. Possible range = total-1 to total/2. If 0F or more than nothing, if 03 to 0E than a deflection, else an INT

Interesting note: this means a db 3 notches higher has a 50% chance of jump picking the qb with no WR nearby. And 4+ notches higher = 100% chance of jump picking with no Wr nearby. A DB 2 notches higher will only be able to deflect. This comfrims a lot of observed theories.

 

I'm trying to calculate drop rates (offensive and defensive) by editing the spreadsheet from another link, and I have the Total+1 and Total/2 functions down.  What do I need to do to get these to compare to the 4f and 03-0E ranges?

 

I don't know the function to be used or how to get the randoms in. 

 

Edit:

 

I'm posting what I was able to get so far, which is calculating the drop rates (I haven't seen this posted on the site) and a very basic percentage function for leaping INTs.  What I can't calculate right now is the "overthrow INT" threshold because is appears that there's a random number being added, and I don't know what the range would be or what other math to do.  Hoping for verification on this.  (Again, I can't calculate how often an "open"/unmolested defender will intercept a poorly thrown ball).

original 2D (3-4 4-3) PC worksheet by Bruddog.xls

Edited by quince3800

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Greetings,


 


What PayPal donation will get us an explanation of the following?


 


OVERTHROW INT THRESHOLD (triple check)


0x29DD5, 0x29DE4, 0x29DF3* (see edits 2 and 3)                           Default 0x0E


 


My issue is that I've edited the underlying hex for the INT table in order to get coverage percentages that I think are appropriate; however, this meant changing the INT max (100 skill) to hex 69 instead of 81.  (I also changed the coefficient--the hex space between skill 6 to 13, etc.--to 3 instead of 2).  That then means that I had to deal with the INT differential for CC situations and for leaping INTs.  I got what I want for those two, but I know that this negatively affects the free defender INT percentage; however, I don't know to what extent. 


 


From what I'm looking at something like the "=ROUNDUP(I14-1,0)" and "=ROUNDUP(I14/2,0)" equations might need to be used in order to pull out the appropriate percentage, but I don't know.


 


I want to set up a column what will tell me X INT skill defender will intercept a poorly thrown (simply overthrown?) ball against Y PC QB Z% of the time.  Can you help me with this?


 


*Edit:  The issue here may be what to divide by, which might just be the distance between the high and low PC values (i.e., 30).  If could be that between the INT values though also.


 


*Edit 2:  Also, there's an error in one of the posts.  The DB only (standing) threshold is at 29DD5, 29DE4, 29DF3.  If you enter the value at 29DEF, it breaks the game; look at the similarity in the surrounding string (C9 0E 90 repeated three times--at each location).


 


*Edit 3:  The final location is 29df3.  I'd originally edited it to 29de3 from the posted 29def.  You can verify this both in the code and the fact that the game will "break" if you go to 29def.


Edited by quince3800

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So, what is up with JJ'ing defenders?  Can the actual jumping or the jumping defender success rate be varied?


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A jumping defender with no receiver near him: does Pass Control - Interception=total. Then random number adjust. Possible range = total-1 to total/2. If 0F or more than nothing, if 03 to 0E than a deflection, else an INT

Interesting note: this means a db 3 notches higher has a 50% chance of jump picking the qb with no WR nearby. And 4+ notches higher = 100% chance of jump picking with no Wr nearby. A DB 2 notches higher will only be able to deflect. This comfrims a lot of observed theories.

 

A spreadsheet that works through all the Jump Defender scenarios and probability of Whiff, Deflection, or INT

JumpINT.xls

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A spreadsheet that works through all the Jump Defender scenarios and probability of Whiff, Deflection, or INT

 

where in the hex is this stuff located if I wanted to change stuff?  I am interested in tweaking: A jumping defender with no receiver near him: does Pass Control - Interception=total. Then random number adjust. Possible range = total-1 to total/2. If 0F or more than nothing, if 03 to 0E than a deflection, else an INT

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where in the hex is this stuff located if I wanted to change stuff?  I am interested in tweaking: A jumping defender with no receiver near him: does Pass Control - Interception=total. Then random number adjust. Possible range = total-1 to total/2. If 0F or more than nothing, if 03 to 0E than a deflection, else an INT

 

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