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Bolt

WEEK 13 Pickem!

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Mutiny's afoot.

 

 

Thursday, 11/30 8:25pmE.T.

Washington @ Dallas

--------------------------------------------

Sunday, 12/3 1:00pmE.T.

Kansas City @ NYJets

New England @ Buffalo

Denver @ Miami

San Francisco Chicago

Detroit @ Baltimore

Minnesota @ Atlanta

Tampa Bay @ Green Bay

Houston @ Tennessee

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville

4:05pmE.T.

Cleveland @ LAChargers

4:25pmE.T.

LARams @ Arizona

NYGiants @ Oakland

Carolina @ New Orleans

8:30pmE.T.

Philadelphia @ Seattle

--------------------------------------------

Monday, 12/4 8:30pmE.T.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

 

 

Week 12 bananas found here:

http://tecmobowl.org/forums/topic/70023-week-12-pluckem/?do=findComment&comment=486943

 

Edited by Bolt
Bolded victors.

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Thursday, 11/30 8:25pmE.T.

Washington @ Dallas

--------------------------------------------

Sunday, 12/3 1:00pmE.T.

Kansas City @ NYJets

New England @ Buffalo

Denver @ Miami

San Francisco Chicago

Detroit @ Baltimore

Minnesota @ Atlanta

Tampa Bay @ Green Bay

Houston @ Tennessee

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville

4:05pmE.T.

Cleveland @ LAChargers

4:25pmE.T.

LARams @ Arizona

NYGiants @ Oakland

Carolina @ New Orleans

8:30pmE.T.

Philadelphia @ Seattle

--------------------------------------------

Monday, 12/4 8:30pmE.T.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

 

giphy.gif

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I'll add some half assed logic this week.

 

Thursday, 11/30 8:25pmE.T.

Washington @ Dallas - if the shitty Chargers can beat Dallas in Dallas, then the slightly shitty Skins can.

--------------------------------------------

Sunday, 12/3 1:00pmE.T.

Kansas City @ NYJets - picking this game with 0% confidence - wtf happened to KC? 

New England @ Buffalo - even if I didn't think the Pats would win, I wouldn't pick against them.

Denver @ Miami - another 50/50 game.  Picking the home team.

San Francisco Chicago - although I'd like to see Garoppolo tear it up.

Detroit @ Baltimore - another 50/50 game.  Picking the home team.

Minnesota @ Atlanta - I'm buying into the MIN hype

Tampa Bay @ Green Bay - another 50/50 game.  Picking the home team.

Houston @ Tennessee  - who cares

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville - Colts should be the runners up in this game

4:05pmE.T.

Cleveland @ LAChargers - Browns only win last year was against the Chargers (which was amazing for my survivor pool).  It can't happen again, right?

4:25pmE.T.

LARams @ Arizona -

NYGiants @ Oakland - who cares

Carolina @ New Orleans - Cam doesn't dive on balls when he fumbles

8:30pmE.T.

Philadelphia @ Seattle - but wouldn't be surprised of Seattle pulls the upset.

--------------------------------------------

Monday, 12/4 8:30pmE.T.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati - go Bengals

 

*picks subject to change.  Yahoo pick'em is official

Edited by Bodom

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Okay, might as well make my picks for this week.  Just so you know, at around half of the games this week are pretty much toss-up games, so picking one over the other with any grain of confidence is a tad bit hasty to say the least.  Overall though, I'm still going to pick a few games I feel confident about:

 

Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys:  Since Zeke's suspension, the Cowboys haven't scored more than 9 points.  The Redskins, meanwhile may have a lot of problems, but at least they have an offensive unit.  Even on a "short week," I still think the Redskins will avenge their home loss and remain relevant somewhat in the playoff race for yet another week.

 

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills:  Overall, I have yet to pick against the Patriots all year long, and aside from some upsets against the Chiefs and Panthers this year, I've really benefited because of this.  I'm still awaiting the decline of Tom Brady, may it be due to fatigue or injury.  But until I see something that would suggest either one, they remain a safe pick.  And until I see more from the Bills that would demonstrate to me that the Bills have what it takes to compete with some of the best teams in football (their only quality win so far this season has been against the Falcons), I lack the confidence to pick them.  They pretty much derped their way to a win against a team with similar woes of their own last week anyways.

 

Denver Broncos vs. Miami Dolphins:  On a neutral site, or even in Denver, this might technically qualify as a toss-up game.  In Miami though, I pretty much know the Broncos overall record against the Dolphins in Miami--only one win thanks to Tim Tebow.  Granted, both teams suck, but because the Broncos seem to be plagued by thoroughly incompetent coaching across the board by a group of people whose sole qualifications happen to be the color of their skin, I cannot pick them to win under any circumstances.  Seriously, what the hell happened to the Broncos squad that annihilated the Cowboys 42-17!?

 

Skipping ahead a few games....

 

Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons:  The Vikings need to win in order to keep pace with the Eagles for homefield advantage.  The Falcons, on the other hand, need to win in order to keep pace with the rest of the NFC South before joining in their epic little war (and if I may be so bold, I think one of the NFC South teams currently in contention will end up on the outside looking in, and it will be either Seattle, Detroit, Green Bay, or Washington that sneaks in).  As I said, I have a hard time imagining that many teams possibly matching up against the Vikings.  Maybe the Steelers; possibly the Patriots.  Or on a good day, the Jaguars.  But personally, I think an all-out offensive juggernaut doesn't stand a chance against that ruthless defensive unit, even if it is quarterbacked by Case Keenum (okay, so admittedly, he's been really good since Week 5).  This should be a toss-up, but I am feeling rather confident about this one.  Then again, I'm not exactly the most confident guy when it comes to the Falcons.

 

Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans:  At least the Titans are reasonably healthy.  Otherwise, the only coaching staff even more pedestrian than the Titans is the Broncos.  And as a result, the Titans are pretty much limping their way to a playoff seat because they have such a piss-easy schedule.  Their most impressive win of the season came against the Seattle Seahawks.  And the last time these two teams fought, the Texans still had Deshaun Watson and J.J. Watt.  And now, they are pretty much a team consisting almost exclusively as back-up and third-string players.  Clowney is literally their only hope at any more shots at victory the rest of the way.  Overall, the Titans will fail to impress on either side of the ball, but will somehow just coast by a win by virtue of the fact that the Texans are a shell of a once dominant offensive juggernaut.

 

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars:  The same conditions as last week apply; the only way the Jaguars could possibly lose this game is to sabotage themselves because of Blake Bortles.  The Colts may have been atrociously bad, but at least they've been playing most of their opponents rather tough as of late--that is, provided that they are even remotely in the same league as them--see LA Rams for more details.  Still, the Colts are practically eliminated from playoff contention at this point in time, and the Jaguars' defensive line could still very much give such a floundering Colts offense fits.

 

Cleveland Browns vs. LA Chargers:  I'm picking the Chargers.  Need I say more?  Well, I guess so since the Browns did manage to secure their only win against them last year.  Maybe that may help explain why Mike McCoy no longer has a job.

 

LA Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals:  The Cardinals may have pulled the closest thing to a huge upset last weekend (I have no idea why the Chiefs were so heavily favored to win over the Bills when neither team seemed capable of getting it done), but that was mostly due to self-sabotage by the Jaguars rather than any emerging talent over there.  Still, last I checked, the Rams utterly annihilated the Cardinals when they played in London, and that was the game that pretty much ended Carson Palmer's career.  Somehow, I doubt playing in Arizona will make much of a difference.  I do think it will be a tad closer though.

 

New York Giants vs. Oakland Raiders:  You know, with Michael Crabtree suspended for this game, and only for this game, this might be a prime time for the Giants to finally add another win on their sched--and just like that, Ben McAdoo gives up on a future Hall of Fame Quarterback in Eli Manning, and has benched him for Geno Smith!?  HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA!  You guys are so fucked!

 

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Seattle Seahawks:  Granted, the Eagles have yet to play against a playoff contender all year long--well, outside of two AFC West teams, and the Washington Redskins twice.  But I'm talking more on a serious scale.  Blame it on their last-place schedule that has seriously put them in Super Bowl contention before we even know if they're for real or not.  The month of December will be revealing.  As difficult as it is to play in Seattle, the Seahawks' entire secondary is pretty much ravaged across the board, and the offensive line remains perhaps the absolute worst in the entire NFL, and that's in spite the never-ending pileups of injuries.  Given the poor matchup, I'm gonna give the Eagles the win.  Leaving just one more serious challenge to overcome before the playoffs start.  Oh, yeah!  Did you know that if the Redskins win tomorrow night, the Eagles will officially clinch the division?

 

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals:  Even though the Steelers could very well screw this one up, I also know that the Steelers have notoriously been known for beating up on the Bungles, even when they were really good (reminder of the infamous 2015 AFC Wild Card game).  The Bungles still need to win this just to remain relevant in the playoff race, but at the end of the day, the Steelers are going to end up playing down to the Bungles level, only to wake up and pull away with a win.

 

So I pretty much picked three toss-up games that I felt pretty confident in already.  I'm not all that confident in the Chiefs vs. Jets game because it's like deciding between two teams that have either lost their way or never had a way to begin with.  Both the 49ers and Bears are so bad that it's tough to pick either one of them at all (especially when you throw in the wild card that is Jimmy Garoppolo into the mix).  The Lions and Ravens both seem so eerily familiar to one another that it's hard to settle on one over the other.  The Bucs may be crap, but so are the Packers without Aaron Rodgers (then again, they did pretty much dominate against the Bears in their only win of the year without him).  And while I'm leaning more towards the Saints over the Panthers, I cannot deny that the Saints' injury to their defensive line is a pretty big deal all things considered, and the Redskins and Rams may have both exposed critical weaknesses on defense that may have opened up all of a sudden.

 

And now finally....

 

The Browns, 49ers, and Giants are the only three teams in the NFL that are officially eliminated from playoff contention.  The Bears will be the next team to be officially eliminated with a loss or a Falcons win.  The Colts would also be eliminated from playoff contention with wins from the Titans, Jaguars, and Bills.  The Broncos would be the only 3-win team still in contention for a playoff spot, however, but they are currently 3 games back for the division--which at this point, is the only playoff spot they can compete for; a Broncos loss, however, would set them up for elimination the following week, even if the Chiefs lose as well.

 

The Bucs would also face elimination if they were to lose next week to the Packers, and then either the Seahawks or Falcons win (the results of the Panthers vs. Saints game isn't going to matter since the Bucs can only possibly contend for a 6th seed at this point).  With a Patriots win, neither the Jets nor the Dolphins will be able to compete for the division crown even if they were to win out.  Plus, with losses to each of them plus wins from the Ravens, Jaguars and Titans, both of these teams would end up eliminated from playoff contention.  The Texans, meanwhile, cannot be eliminated from playoff contention even if both the Jaguars and Titans win because the sixth seed would still be open to them.

 

There is not a single circumstance where a 5-win team can be eliminated this week.  However, circumstances for all of the NFC teams to be eliminated the following week will be put in place if they were to lose, and then the Seahawks, Rams and Falcons win.  The Raiders and Chargers will stay alive by virtue of the open nature of the AFC West (they are behind by only one game), and the Bungles will remain alive because they could still hypothetically catch up to and surpass the Ravens.

 

The only team that can officially claim a playoff berth this week is the Eagles; they can clinch their division with either a win or a Cowboys loss (this is due to the fact that they would then fall to 5-7 eliminating them from competing for the division; meanwhile, the Redskins cannot possibly win the division due to a head-to-head sweep by the Eagles).  The Vikings cannot clinch the division, even with a win plus losses for the Lions and Packers because the Lions could still secure a conference tie-breaker.  And since half of the NFC will remain very much alive in the playoff hunt anyways, all they can do is set up a clincher the following week.  The Steelers cannot clinch the division until they have beaten the Ravens next week.  Likewise, the Patriots cannot clinch a playoff berth because the Bills could still hypothetically win out and win the division, and not only could the Ravens hypothetically win a tie-breaker scenario over the Patriots based on conference record, but the Chiefs could as well because of head-to-head.

 

With that said, the Patriots, Steelers, and Vikings can clinch their divisions with two more wins apiece.  The NFC South, NFC West, AFC South, and AFC West, meanwhile, will remain contested for perhaps the remainder of the month.

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18 hours ago, kamphuna8 said:

For my 100th W ( Last 1 to the C note ) I got a Cowboys dub gaining a game on erryone. Probably my first and last highlight of this pickem season for me. 

 

Good call. DAL sure kicked their ass all night long.

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2 hours ago, buck said:

 

Good call. DAL sure kicked their ass all night long.

Look, let's be honest. Yes, I'm a Cowboys fan. And in Pick'ems ive been very successful at in the past I've still pretty much picked them to win every week. While in the end the game was an ass kicking, the true reason for it was WAS was playing even worse than Dallas in terms of those turnovers (Thanks Famison Jamison) and then the already injury ravaged Redskins got even more injured. Admittedly, before the OL (and part time Perine injury), their D put some good tape out there (I'm super excited for Chidobe to be out there and Woods is a thumper when he's not missing tackles, Byron Jones has been supremely disappointing, and even he didn't suck as bad as normal, and they did this even without Sean Lee just like they did in the first half against the Eagles ( where again, the Iggles weren't playing awesome, but the Cowboys also had Hitchens healthy in the first half, and not the 2nd, when the Eagles started to run train on them with Ajayi, Blount and Clement). This allowed the Cowboys ( and their coaching staff ) to gradually ease their head out of their asses and lean on the Redskins in the 2nd half like they leaned on teams in the 2nd half all last year (And that Switzer PR TD was a godsend while Dak was getting "evaluated"). It was a super fun win for me as a fan, and keeps hope alive for this season. I saw that PFI gave the Cowboys a 3% chance to make the playoffs even after the win. Well, that's a hell of a lot better chance than ZERO. A lot of the teams that play above them play each other, and while they lose tiebreakers to the likes of the Packers (I don't think they finish with 10 wins) and the Falcons ( I think the Falcons are finding their groove now, just like they did last year after a slow start), I do think the Cowboys have a legit chance to catch the Hawks. But they also have to win out. Not easy, not likely, but not impossible.

 

Speaking of the Hawks, as I was writing this, thinking of how I pick games ( and I like picking vs the spread better after doing that the last few seasons ) where I'm not an overreactionary, I believe in mini cycles during the season and the power of desperation (and in certain cases home field), streaks happen and then they end. Every team every season has their ebbs and flows (perhaps because the talent level is so close across the board). I initially thought of the Chiefs, who started out BALLIN, but I remember even before they got their streak going, Eric Berry got hurt in the first game against the Pats, and slowly their defense was not able to do their part as much, and then the offense started strugglin, which all those announcers are talking about how teams are preventing them from going deep, but the real issue for them is they haven't been able to get the run game going as consistently imho, and I do believe they can find that again (but they won't get Berry back...). Basically had me thinking of how this game we love is truly a team sport, a 3 phase sport. Which of course got this Cowboys fan lamenting on Romo's career (he saved us from years (and many QBs) of QB futility. I loved Bledsoe when they got him in 2005, but that line they put him behind was not conducive to him staying upright. Back to Romo, I feel for Romo, I love Romo, like I said he saved us. I actually giggle at all the Romo hate (who am I to tell people what to think?) and the I Hate Tony Romo page on facebook provided me with a shitton of laughs. But Romo in a vacuum was a Hall of Fame talent. Football is a team sport, but people tend to ignore/forget that when those that get a shit ton of coverage fail (and succeed tbh). I'm not here to say something like Romo was as good as Brady, but if you put Romo on a team like the Seahawks at the time Russell Wilson joined them, I think you see the potential for 3 or 4 Super Bowls in a row and at least a couple of SB wins barring the injuries that derail so many seasons. Football is a team sport. Everyone has to, as the Patriot Way states, Do Their Job. In Romo's career in Dallas, they tend to forget a lot of little but important details. That bobbled snap game (which I attended, RIP Parcells as Cowboys Coach), I didn't like the prospect of the Cowboys defense trying to defend the Seahawks with a minute and change left trying to prevent a FG to win. When the play happened I thought it was a fake, then later when I got to see replays, I saw how Gramatica just completely whiffed on any contact on Jordan Babineaux, which if he even got in his way, I think Romo for sure gets the 1st, and he probably scores the TD. They forget (or ignore/downplay) that the next year, when the Cowboys had their true breakout season), the Cowboys coaches chose to flip the successful running formula they had all year, changing from lightning and thunder to just thunder. Julius Jones was the starter and Marion Barber was the Ender, pounding teams into submission at the end when they needed to run out clock. They started Barber in that playoff game, he got his 100 yards and balled out in the first half, but he didn't have it like that in the 2nd half, and the Cowboys D failed to prevent a ridiculous last second TD from the Giants (it wasnt the TD so much as the passes to get them in position for that short run) and when it came down to it at the end, Romo had little time after the Giants went ahead by 4, had to force something down the field, and got picked off trying to force it to Witten, thus he's obviously a choker (sure he only led the Cowboys to 3 points in the 2nd half and 17 points overall against that Giants D, but how many did Brady and the 18-0 Pats score against the G-Men in the Super Bowl? ) Yeah that was all Romo's fault. See, Brady losing to the GMen can be deemed as fluky because their institution was better, they got there (playoffs) every year with admittedly not as  tough a division, but definitely the best coach and QB combo ever (perhaps tied with Paul Brown and Otto Graham). What about 2014 you ask? Another choke job in the playoffs with a 12-4 record. Why do you think they were so successful that year? Was it just that Romo played better or did Romo play better because they actually committed and executed RUNNING THE DAMN FOOTBALL. Again, team sport. Sure Dez caught it on a clutch throw from Romo on 4th and short. Dez made a play only he and a couple of other WRs in the league could make ( a football move while going to the ground). Never mind the defense couldn't get those clutch stops against a super gimpy and still studly Rodgers, because Marinelli treats blitzes like he's allergic to them. Anyway, sorry I digressed. I finally got to 100. I enjoy Romo on the call. I wish he won a title while he was here. He didn't often because of his own actions, but also because he wasn't on the better TEAM. I'm super thankful for Romo's career in Dallas. After the Campo years (3 straight 5-11, and campo was a great D Coord) things were at their lowest. I'm not the biggest fan of the Ginger, but he has been there before as a  player. He gets them to play hard. If only he'd learn that it's possible to make adjustments in game...

 

100. Let's hope I get at least one game right today (meaning I actually make my picks).

 

Sorry for the rant. Carry on

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All of my "risk-picks" - as I saw it...that is, picks I made against my own better judgement (because I'm not in it for shared Weekly-Gold, at this point) - did not pan-out, because these teams all won:

 

On 11/29/2017 at 2:05 AM, Bolt said:

Denver @ Miami

Detroit @ Baltimore

Minnesota @ Atlanta

 

Oh, well.  I can live with that.

(I did think ATL was stupid for not going for it on 4th-down late in the 4th, tho... Even if they make the FG, they're still trailing; and it's too late in the game for that nonsense.)

 

Edited by Bolt

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I missed the late window  too. It's been a day

 At least.my wife is happy. Hopefully I get the night game right. Iggles locked in. 

6 hours ago, kamphuna8 said:

Look, let's be honest. Yes, I'm a Cowboys fan. 

 

100. Let's hope I get at least one game right today (meaning I actually make my picks).

 

 

 

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nbc is suckin mad Seahawk-balls ...

 

Do Eagles really get a win, tonight?

 

 

On 11/29/2017 at 9:01 AM, gojiphen malor said:

Philadelphia @ Seattle

 

By my pick, too, Yebediah.  By my pick, too

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Well, I'm now 12-3 for the weekend with one game to go.  I'm guaranteed this weekend, with only Bodom having a shot at sharing the top honors with me tomorrow (that's only if he decides to pick the Bungles and they win, however).

 

Bodom so far is second place at 11-4.

 

buck is currently in third place at 10-5.

 

And then there's a three-way tie for fourth between Bolt, TecmoSuperFan, and Gojiphen at 9-6.

 

Kamphuna, because he never got around to submitting his picks until it was too late, is now a measly 1-14 by default.  But taking into account his late picks, he would have been 7-8 anyways because he still never picked any of the afternoon games, and lost tonight's game as well (he was the only one to have predicted a Cowboys upset over the Redskins, however).  Either way, it was quite unfortunate.

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On 11/29/2017 at 9:47 AM, buck said:

I'm sure I'll tweak a couple, last minute, and get them wrong, like always.

 

I did this with SEA... partly because of all their injuries (and because I wasn't ready to rock the SNF set-up game vibe).

 

Sad!

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9 hours ago, Mike Gordan said:

Well, I'm now 12-3 for the weekend with one game to go.  I'm guaranteed this weekend, with only Bodom having a shot at sharing the top honors with me tomorrow (that's only if he decides to pick the Bungles and they win, however).

 

 

Congrats on the week (again).  I'm sticking with PIT.  I'm cool with silver... or sharing silver with buck (if he picks Cincy and they win).  

 

Also, I had a feeling Seattle was going to win last night, but didn't have the cojones to change my pick.

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3 hours ago, Bodom said:

 

Congrats on the week (again).  I'm sticking with PIT.  I'm cool with silver... or sharing silver with buck (if he picks Cincy and they win).  

 

Also, I had a feeling Seattle was going to win last night, but didn't have the cojones to change my pick.

Neither did I.  I felt I was better off sticking with the safe picks whenever necessary.

 

I only picked the Vikings over the Falcons because of their defensive performance over the Rams a mere couple weeks ago gave me the impression that the Falcons did not stand a chance.  I picked the Jets over the Chiefs because of last week when the Chiefs couldn't even defeat the Buffalo Bills (this makes it the first time all year I accurately predicted a Jet victory).  And I picked the Bears over the 49ers and failed there because I honestly had no idea what to make of Jimmy Garopolo as a starter.  If there's any consolation prize for the Bears, it's that they may end up playing a Detroit Lions squad without Matthew Stafford.  And I felt like the Saints were gonna beat the Panthers because I felt the Panthes have a bit of a problematic receiving core and were otherwise a one-dimensional offense (something the Saints most certainly weren't).

 

As for Baltimore over Detroit, and then Green Bay over Tampa Bay, I basically flipped a coin and decided on the winning teams was all.  Once I saw Matthew Stafford go down, I knew the Lions were finished.  I felt almost certain the Bucs were going to win with a last second field goal or something, but then overtime came and the Packers drove it down for a touchdown to win it.

 

The only game I got wrong this week that I was for sure was gonna get right was the Washington Redskins over the Cowboys.  Nope.

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Ok, 1st-place finishers were

 

1. @Mike Gordan  13-3  {who's now Tops in Weekly-Gold, @ 5}

2. @Bodom  12-4

3. @buck  11-5

 

 

Overall leaders, are:  132-60 Mike; 126-66 buck; 123-69 Bodom

 

 

(And mine - 10 - right this-Wk were: NYJ, N.E, S.F, G.B, TEN, JAX, LAC, LAR, OAK, PIT)

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