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Onside kick recovery rate experiment results

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I know a some people aren't ondiscord or don't follow my twitter account. Over the weekend I hacked the original rom to have the COM kick onsides kicks to each other over and over anad recorded the results in sram, While these results may be slightly different to man mode because of the man kicker i think it would be pretty close. I hacked the game so the COM would always kick at the same bar length. Here are the results. These aren't meant to be absolute numbers but rather a baseline. Obviously conditions/teams involved will make a difference. I ran this test in season mode and it got thru about 3.5 weeks worth of season games for about 5000 total kicks per run. 





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Interesting. I never realized that the bar length affected the result, but makes sense. In games with the best teams where they are likely to score every possession, I wonder if kicking more onsides as P1 every time is the best strategy.

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so, P2 actually recovered some of them?  but wait....


since you ran it in season mode, COM JUICE should distort the data.


so, maybe run these tests in preseason, or SET the juice to all 0's to make sure it doesn't change the "normal" outcome.


of course, I could be wrong and COM v COM doesn't use juice at all, but I am thinking it does.

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Good idea. Like i said its rough guideline. 


The juice would probably be minor the first few weeks. Which is all i ran it for. 


I fixed the issue of the P2 ball position right after the kicker kicks it to match p1 and that drastically changed p2 odds on no bar....improved recovery to about 3% vs 0.5%. So its a big part of the problem but not all. 


I think the small edge p1 may have in recovering a ball is the other main culprit. 





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1 hour ago, davefmurray said:

That would be a disturbing amount of data points. :D

Disturbing is my middle name...


@segathonsov I will try and run something sometime this week with what I would think be the worst teams at recovering...ind,cle and probably the best nyg,pit


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  • Similar Content

    • By buck
      as the subject says, I am looking for ideas to make onsides tougher for the kicking team to recover.  
      or is there a way to make the onside kick travel farther?
      I have a rom where the teams are pretty fast and basically the kicking team is getting to the ball area so fast that they have a high percentage to recover the kick.  
      I can't remember, but is the kickoff team code different for onside vs regular kick?  I will test in a little bit to find out.
      some ideas that I have:
      add a "delay" to the kickoff team 
      move receiving team closer to ball
      make the onside kick travel a bit further....but how to do this?
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