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Maynard_G_Krebs

NFL 2017-2018 Season Discussion

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1 hour ago, bruddog said:

 

The win PROBABILITY tool is actually the most data driven accurate metric there is. It uses down,  distance, time remaining, score differential, time outs left. But they aren't the only site doing it.  

 

It is verified to make sure it is not under or overconfident. Example: Do ~75% of teams win when it says they should accounting for sample size error.  


I appreciate this stats babble from you, good sir, but I have watched these win probability tools grow and drop at a rate beyond reasonable. Any given game analysis looks like a lie detector test result.

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1 hour ago, Maynard_G_Krebs said:


I appreciate this stats babble from you, good sir, but I have watched these win probability tools grow and drop at a rate beyond reasonable. Any given game analysis looks like a lie detector test result.

 That's because it's giving a probability at any given pt in time.

 

I like looking at it to see the ebb a flow of the game beyond just looking at the final score. And to put our best data driven guess at quantifying to how unlikely a comeback was. 

 

Does ESPN let you toggle on and off the pre-game estimate. I dont remember. 

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On 10/15/2017 at 2:20 PM, Maynard_G_Krebs said:

Welp, there goes Green Bay's season. Rodgers out for the year.

 

We all know Aaron Rodgers is amazing. He is the true g.o.a.t, with T Brade being a moderately close second. 

That said, there is still plenty of precedence for the Packers to make a run. 

 

     12 reasons Green Majik believes the Packers' season is not over without number 12:

 

1)   I'm typing this at a coffee shop, and Phil Collin's "In the Air Tonight" is playing on coffee shop fm. Could an amazing Rodgerless run be "In the Ware Tonight" for the Pack? 

2)   I'm a homer (apparently with a huge Patriots complex, like most Packer fans), so I believe the Pack can always find a way to win. 

3)   The Packers lost a winnable game last week against the Vikings, whose defense was beastly against Brett Hundley. With a week to game plan, Hundley and coach McCarthy will be                 ready for the Vikes next time at Lambeau. 

4)   This is back-up QB Hundley's third year in Mike McCarthy's offense. He was built for this moment -- not to take over the franchise, but to carry the team if Rodgers went down.  

5)   Crissakes, back-up QB Hundley's first name is "Brett." 

6)   As several of you have mentioned in this forum, this has been a topsy-turvy year in the NFL already. The only thing that seems definite is that the Chiefs are fierce, #Okoye. Would the               Packers making a deep run really be out of the norm for this crazy season, in which the BILLS could legitimately break their 17-year playoff drought? 

7)   The Packers are 4-2 and no one looks like they want to run away with the NFC north, which is precisely what the Packers were looking to do before Rodgers went down. It's a wide open race, fellas. Once you're in the playoffs, it's a brand new season. Especially if they get the division and that home playoff game, they could make a deep run. 

8)   For now, the Packers WR core is healthy in Adams, Cobb and ~Nelson. There are points to be scored. 

9)   Coach McCarthy's 2016 campaign -- last year the Pack ripped off ten straight wins to the NFC championship. A LOT of that had to do with Rodgers' greatness, but credit is also due to           McCarthy and other coaches for helping the team bounce back from that 4-6 deficit. 

10)   Packers 2013 campaign - The Packers win the division despite needing four quarterbacks to do it. Rodgers gets hurt in a week 10 match-up vs. the Bears early in the game. Their back-up, Seneca Wallace, is injured the next game. After their third stringer Scott Tolzein is benched mid-game in wk 12, Matt Flynn (who started the season on the Raiders) keeps the season alive so Rodgers can steal the division from the Bears in wk 17. 

11)   Guys named Kaepernick, Brady, Hostetler -- supported by that ferocious Niners defense, in week 12 of 2012 Harbaugh goes with his back-up QB even with Alex Smith healthy. Kaep almost wins the Super Bowl. Brett Hundley is not Tom Brady, but T Brade, like Kaep, was promoted over the natural starter Drew Bledsoe in week 11 in 2001. And won the Super Bowl. You know who else won the Super Bowl: Tecmo Giants natural back-up Jeff Hostetler. Supported by that ferocious 1990 Giants defense, Host helped lead the Giants to Super Bowl XXV.

12)   A guy named Flynn, again, in 2011 -- Sitting at 14-1 with the no. 1 seed clinched, the Packers rest Rodgers and several key starters in week 17 against the Lions. The Lions have the #5 seed to gain -- meaning they would be at the 9-7 Giants in the playoffs instead of the 13-3 Saints. Stafford played an incredible game, but back-up Flynn passes for 480 yd and 6 TD, and made hay in the offseason because of it. Hundley wants to make hay, too, and will be motivated to put good film for the league to see. 

 

 

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23 hours ago, Green Majik said:

 

We all know Aaron Rodgers is amazing. He is the true g.o.a.t, with T Brade being a moderately close second. 

That said, there is still plenty of precedence for the Packers to make a run. 

 

     12 reasons Green Majik believes the Packers' season is not over without number 12:

 

1)   I'm typing this at a coffee shop, and Phil Collin's "In the Air Tonight" is playing on coffee shop fm. Could an amazing Rodgerless run be "In the Ware Tonight" for the Pack? 

2)   I'm a homer (apparently with a huge Patriots complex, like most Packer fans), so I believe the Pack can always find a way to win. 

3)   The Packers lost a winnable game last week against the Vikings, whose defense was beastly against Brett Hundley. With a week to game plan, Hundley and coach McCarthy will be                 ready for the Vikes next time at Lambeau. 

4)   This is back-up QB Hundley's third year in Mike McCarthy's offense. He was built for this moment -- not to take over the franchise, but to carry the team if Rodgers went down.  

5)   Crissakes, back-up QB Hundley's first name is "Brett." 

6)   As several of you have mentioned in this forum, this has been a topsy-turvy year in the NFL already. The only thing that seems definite is that the Chiefs are fierce, #Okoye. Would the               Packers making a deep run really be out of the norm for this crazy season, in which the BILLS could legitimately break their 17-year playoff drought? 

7)   The Packers are 4-2 and no one looks like they want to run away with the NFC north, which is precisely what the Packers were looking to do before Rodgers went down. It's a wide open race, fellas. Once you're in the playoffs, it's a brand new season. Especially if they get the division and that home playoff game, they could make a deep run. 

8)   For now, the Packers WR core is healthy in Adams, Cobb and ~Nelson. There are points to be scored. 

9)   Coach McCarthy's 2016 campaign -- last year the Pack ripped off ten straight wins to the NFC championship. A LOT of that had to do with Rodgers' greatness, but credit is also due to           McCarthy and other coaches for helping the team bounce back from that 4-6 deficit. 

10)   Packers 2013 campaign - The Packers win the division despite needing four quarterbacks to do it. Rodgers gets hurt in a week 10 match-up vs. the Bears early in the game. Their back-up, Seneca Wallace, is injured the next game. After their third stringer Scott Tolzein is benched mid-game in wk 12, Matt Flynn (who started the season on the Raiders) keeps the season alive so Rodgers can steal the division from the Bears in wk 17. 

11)   Guys named Kaepernick, Brady, Hostetler -- supported by that ferocious Niners defense, in week 12 of 2012 Harbaugh goes with his back-up QB even with Alex Smith healthy. Kaep almost wins the Super Bowl. Brett Hundley is not Tom Brady, but T Brade, like Kaep, was promoted over the natural starter Drew Bledsoe in week 11 in 2001. And won the Super Bowl. You know who else won the Super Bowl: Tecmo Giants natural back-up Jeff Hostetler. Supported by that ferocious 1990 Giants defense, Host helped lead the Giants to Super Bowl XXV.

12)   A guy named Flynn, again, in 2011 -- Sitting at 14-1 with the no. 1 seed clinched, the Packers rest Rodgers and several key starters in week 17 against the Lions. The Lions have the #5 seed to gain -- meaning they would be at the 9-7 Giants in the playoffs instead of the 13-3 Saints. Stafford played an incredible game, but back-up Flynn passes for 480 yd and 6 TD, and made hay in the offseason because of it. Hundley wants to make hay, too, and will be motivated to put good film for the league to see. 

 

 

 

I fully support you in these delusions, as the adverse realities would lead to a very long and saddening season of games. :D

 

Let's hope Packers management doesn't try to push Rodgers back too soon, effectively Tony-Romo'ing him for the remainder of his career.

Edited by Maynard_G_Krebs

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On 10/18/2017 at 1:41 PM, gojiphen malor said:

Just SIM'd week 7 for my FB posts.

thought this might interest you @Green Majik

Goji's BASE ROM NO HACKS-58.png

 

So you're telling me there's a chance!

Drew Brees is hot right now. Packers 'D' needs turnovers BIG TIME in this one. Two picks sounds like a great place to start :) 

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The previously 2-4 Raiders just beat the widely #1 ranked Kansas City Chiefs. Leading everyone to suspect what should be common knowledge to anyone paying attention to the NFL for at least the last 5 years: the Chiefs are never #1. 

 

I am glad that first half of season warm-up games provide overachieving teams an outlet, and long-yearning fans something to hang their hats on before the enevitable drop off to reality.

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On 10/6/2017 at 5:59 PM, Bolt said:

This is why I love James Jones {an da hoodie}:

 

on 'NFL Players Only' (nfl network) just-now he

named "J-E-T- Jets! Jets! Jets!" his Biggest

Surprise team (so far),

AND

Todd Bowles his Coach O da Year prediction

 

 

4b44ddebd265cf9236b56c37b8a5ac3d--green-

 

J.J. bringin' it!

 

95a0cc64ef60dcdba4c6ddf717e7dc14

 

{^ This is from the latest 'NFL Players Only' - THIS Friday - after Heath showed him the above 2-Weeks-ago post}

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I hear A LOT of talk about Adrian Peterson and his BIGGG comeback.  Yes, he's a beast, yes, he's a bad a$$, yes, he's still "one of the" best backs in the league,......BUT.......I want people to really pay attention Sunday morning at around 10:00am when he goes up against "THE BEST" Tailback, if not the best player in the league... {Todd Gurley}.  He's gonna single handedly disassemble the PHX defense and put up major PTPN (Peterson Torch Passing Numbers) on his very challenging seemingly everlasting vision quest to becoming the 2017 NFL M.V.P.....................oh it's true...........IT'S DAMN TRUE!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

                                                                                         (Frodo Baggins with Todd Gurley's head insert here)

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On 10/21/2017 at 1:30 PM, ~Tailback King~ said:

I hear A LOT of talk about Adrian Peterson and his BIGGG comeback.  Yes, he's a beast, yes, he's a bad a$$, yes, he's still "one of the" best backs in the league,......BUT.......I want people to really pay attention Sunday morning at around 10:00am when he goes up against "THE BEST" Tailback, if not the best player in the league... {Todd Gurley}.  He's gonna single handedly disassemble the PHX defense and put up major PTPN (Peterson Torch Passing Numbers) on his very challenging seemingly everlasting vision quest to becoming the 2017 NFL M.V.P.....................oh it's true...........IT'S DAMN TRUE!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

                                                                                         (Frodo Baggins with Todd Gurley's head insert here)

 

Pocky Translation: Peterson is good, Gurley is better.

 

TBK was right today. 

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I was wrong, to have missed the {yahoo-Pickem} cutoff to change my PHX-pick to LAR (but, did the same thing with the Bears; so that's a wash).

 

 

Something I just-noticed with the Dolphins:

 

They have 10 total TDs - on the year - FOR LOWEST IN THE LEAGUE, and yet carry a 4-2 record / 3-game Win-streak

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2 hours ago, buck said:

Watching the patriots last night I realized one of my life's regrets is never getting to see the hoodie and the goat live in person.

 

You still have 3-4 more years to make that a reality!

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Funny story about yesterday (actually not funny in the least, but I'll share anyways...).

Sunday morning I woke up at 3:30am for no apparent reason and couldn't get back to sleep.  Went downstairs and started flipping through channels to see what was on TV.  I was pleasantly surprised to see the NFL Network was replaying the Pats/Falcons Super Bowl in it's entirety from 4-7am.  So I made some coffee and spent my morning re-watching it.  Wife and kids started waking up on queue at 7am.  The only downside was that I was toast by 9pm last night, crashed mid-1st quarter and basically saw none of the game (which now makes 4 in a row).  Cool story, Bodom.

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4 hours ago, Bodom said:

Funny story about yesterday (actually not funny in the least, but I'll share anyways...).

Sunday morning I woke up at 3:30am for no apparent reason and couldn't get back to sleep.  Went downstairs and started flipping through channels to see what was on TV.  I was pleasantly surprised to see the NFL Network was replaying the Pats/Falcons Super Bowl in it's entirety from 4-7am.  So I made some coffee and spent my morning re-watching it.  Wife and kids started waking up on queue at 7am.  The only downside was that I was toast by 9pm last night, crashed mid-1st quarter and basically saw none of the game (which now makes 4 in a row).  Cool story, Bodom.

 

Alternatively you could have ended with "then i found $20."

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