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bruddog

Come back from INJURY chances

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Every player starts off as questionable. 


 


I verified in the source code the probabilities


 


 


QUESTIONABLE = 25% CHANCE OF RETURN,  ELSE MOVE TO DOUBTFUL = code= 0x03


DOUBTFUL =  50% CHANCE OF RETURN, ELSE MOVE TO PROBABLE =code= 0x02


PROBABLE = 100% CHANCE OF RETURN FROM INJURY =code= 0x01


 


 


Which if I did my math right makes for


 


 


Chance it takes exactly x weeks to return  :


 


0 weeks  = 25%


1 week = 37.5%


2 weeks = 25%


3 weeks = 12.5%


 


 


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Right after where the condition code is. Yes the max could be tweaked to something longer but there wouldn't be an easy way to make it a fixed maximum due to memory limitations. But weith probabilities you could make it VERY UNLIKELY for the injury to go beyond x weeks.


 


The following method produces some good spread of injury ranges


 


Initial injury 


 


33% chance to start at questionable


33% chance to start at doubtful


33% chance to start at probable


 


Then a 33% chance to improve to the next condition level each week


 


This give you stuff where half the injuries will be 2 weeks or less, then a smaller cluster around 3,4,5,6,7 weeks and then a few outliers beyond  at  8+ games missed.


 


 


 


Or you could do something where you had


 


5% chance to start at out for season (Would probably need to update the injured text so it could also show "OUT"


30% chance to start at questionable


55% chance to start at probable 


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How about if the probable chance of returning is set to be a static 40% before each game?  This would equal the following probabilities that a player returns BY a certain game:


before game 1 (after the injury game): 40%


by game 2: 64%


by game 3: 79%


by game 4: 87%


by game 5: 92%


by game 6: 95%


by game 7: 97%


by game 8: 98%


by game 9: 99%


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