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Percentages and Odds of Catches, INT's, etc.

RetroNathan

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RetroNathan

RetroNathan

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I don't know if I a remembering correctly, but I thought there was a chart somewhere that had the percentages and odds of catching with certain attributes (WR vs. DB), odds of picks, etc. Anyone know where that is, or if I'm remembering correctly? It was in a table form I believe. @Knobbe @davefmurray

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Catch/Interception/Incompletion Probability by EdibleAntiPerspirant
--------------------------------------------------------------------
(the probability bytes were found by konforce, jstout later figured out how
catches, deflections and interceptions were determined)

The general formula for this, as you might be able to guess, is PC + REC - INT.
The thing that complicates this is that PC and REC use a different group of
values than INT. The probabilities can change depending on the number of
defenders as well as how accurate the pass is.

In this section I've listed a couple of tables that will show the probabilities
of a catch, incompletion or interception in various situations. These tables
assume that both the receiver and the defender are attempting to make the catch
while in a standing position (not diving or jumping). An important thing to
note is that PC and REC have a completely equal influence on this, so instead
of listing them separately, I added them together in each row. Because of the
way the ratings go up in different increments, when you add together the PC and
REC, they might be off by 1 from the number listed in the table. It doesn't
make a difference.


Table 1 - Drop Probability: This table shows the chance that a receiver who is
wide open (no defenders near him) will drop a pass when in an upright positon
on the X.

PC+REC    Drop%
  12       31%
  19       29%
  25       27%
  31       25%
  38       23%
  44       21%
  50       19%
  56       18%
  63       16%
  69       14%
  75       13%
  81       11%
  88       10%
  94        8%
 100        7%
 106        5%
 113        4%
 119        3%
 125        1%
>126        0%


Table 2 - Catch/Interception/Incompletion Probability: This one is a little
more complicated, this is for the same situation as Table 1 except with a
single defender right on the receiver. The three numbers go in the order of
Catch-INT-Incomplete. Note that when there are two defenders, the game checks
for an interception by both of the defenders, one right after the other, in the
order that they are listed in the game. A third defender will have no effect
on the play.

PC+REC|INT: 6   |   13   |   19   |   25   |   31   |   38   |   44   |   50   
  12  |  0-44-56| 0-48-52| 0-52-48| 0-57-43| 0-62-38| 0-67-33| 0-73-27| 0-79-21
  19  |  0-40-60| 0-44-56| 0-48-52| 0-52-48| 0-57-43| 0-62-38| 0-67-33| 0-73-27
  25  |  0-36-64| 0-40-60| 0-44-56| 0-48-52| 0-52-48| 0-57-43| 0-62-38| 0-67-33
  31  |  0-32-68| 0-36-64| 0-40-60| 0-44-56| 0-48-52| 0-52-48| 0-57-43| 0-62-38
  38  |  0-29-71| 0-32-68| 0-36-64| 0-40-60| 0-44-56| 0-48-52| 0-52-48| 0-57-43
  44  |  2-26-72| 0-29-71| 0-32-68| 0-36-64| 0-40-60| 0-44-56| 0-48-52| 0-52-48
  50  |  7-23-70| 2-26-72| 0-29-71| 0-32-68| 0-36-64| 0-40-60| 0-44-56| 0-48-52
  56  | 12-20-68| 7-23-70| 2-26-72| 0-29-71| 0-32-68| 0-36-64| 0-40-60| 0-44-56
  63  | 16-17-67|12-20-68| 7-23-70| 2-26-72| 0-29-71| 0-32-68| 0-36-64| 0-40-60
  69  | 20-15-65|16-17-67|12-20-68| 7-23-70| 2-26-72| 0-29-71| 0-32-68| 0-36-64
  75  | 24-12-64|20-15-65|16-17-67|12-20-68| 7-23-70| 2-26-72| 0-29-71| 0-32-68
  81  | 28-10-62|24-12-64|20-15-65|16-17-67|12-20-68| 7-23-70| 2-26-72| 0-29-71
  88  | 32- 7-61|28-10-62|24-12-64|20-15-65|16-17-67|12-20-68| 7-23-70| 2-26-72
  94  | 35- 5-60|32- 7-61|28-10-62|24-12-64|20-15-65|16-17-67|12-20-68| 7-23-70
 100  | 38- 3-59|35- 5-60|32- 7-61|28-10-62|24-12-64|20-15-65|16-17-67|12-20-68
 106  | 42- 0-58|38- 3-59|35- 5-60|32- 7-61|28-10-62|24-12-64|20-15-65|16-17-67
 113  | 45- 0-55|42- 0-58|38- 3-59|35- 5-60|32- 7-61|28-10-62|24-12-64|20-15-65
 119  | 48- 0-52|45- 0-55|42- 0-58|38- 3-59|35- 5-60|32- 7-61|28-10-62|24-12-64
 125  | 50- 0-50|48- 0-52|45- 0-55|42- 0-58|38- 3-59|35- 5-60|32- 7-61|28-10-62
 131  | 53- 0-47|50- 0-50|48- 0-52|45- 0-55|42- 0-58|38- 3-59|35- 5-60|32- 7-61
 138  | 56- 0-44|53- 0-47|50- 0-50|48- 0-52|45- 0-55|42- 0-58|38- 3-59|35- 5-60
 144  | 58- 0-42|56- 0-44|53- 0-47|50- 0-50|48- 0-52|45- 0-55|42- 0-58|38- 3-59
 150  | 61- 0-39|58- 0-42|56- 0-44|53- 0-47|50- 0-50|48- 0-52|45- 0-55|42- 0-58
 156  | 63- 0-37|61- 0-39|58- 0-42|56- 0-44|53- 0-47|50- 0-50|48- 0-52|45- 0-55
 163  | 66- 0-34|63- 0-37|61- 0-39|58- 0-42|56- 0-44|53- 0-47|50- 0-50|48- 0-52
 169  | 68- 0-32|66- 0-34|63- 0-37|61- 0-39|58- 0-42|56- 0-44|53- 0-47|50- 0-50
 175  | 70- 0-30|68- 0-32|66- 0-34|63- 0-37|61- 0-39|58- 0-42|56- 0-44|53- 0-47
 181  | 72- 0-28|70- 0-30|68- 0-32|66- 0-34|63- 0-37|61- 0-39|58- 0-42|56- 0-44
 188  | 74- 0-26|72- 0-28|70- 0-30|68- 0-32|66- 0-34|63- 0-37|61- 0-39|58- 0-42
 194  | 76- 0-24|74- 0-26|72- 0-28|70- 0-30|68- 0-32|66- 0-34|63- 0-37|61- 0-39
 200  | 78- 0-22|76- 0-24|74- 0-26|72- 0-28|70- 0-30|68- 0-32|66- 0-34|63- 0-37

PC+REC|INT:56   |   63   |   69   |   75   |   81   |   88   |   94   |   100  
  12  |  0-85-15| 0-92- 8| 0-100-0| 0-100-0| 0-100-0| 0-100-0| 0-100-0| 0-100-0
  19  |  0-79-21| 0-85-15| 0-92- 8| 0-100-0| 0-100-0| 0-100-0| 0-100-0| 0-100-0
  25  |  0-73-27| 0-79-21| 0-85-15| 0-92- 8| 0-100-0| 0-100-0| 0-100-0| 0-100-0
  31  |  0-67-33| 0-73-27| 0-79-21| 0-85-15| 0-92- 8| 0-100-0| 0-100-0| 0-100-0
  38  |  0-62-38| 0-67-33| 0-73-27| 0-79-21| 0-85-15| 0-92- 8| 0-100-0| 0-100-0
  44  |  0-57-43| 0-62-38| 0-67-33| 0-73-27| 0-79-21| 0-85-15| 0-92- 8| 0-100-0
  50  |  0-52-48| 0-57-43| 0-62-38| 0-67-33| 0-73-27| 0-79-21| 0-85-15| 0-92- 8
  56  |  0-48-52| 0-52-48| 0-57-43| 0-62-38| 0-67-33| 0-73-27| 0-79-21| 0-85-15
  63  |  0-44-56| 0-48-52| 0-52-48| 0-57-43| 0-62-38| 0-67-33| 0-73-27| 0-79-21
  69  |  0-40-60| 0-44-56| 0-48-52| 0-52-48| 0-57-43| 0-62-38| 0-67-33| 0-73-27
  75  |  0-36-64| 0-40-60| 0-44-56| 0-48-52| 0-52-48| 0-57-43| 0-62-38| 0-67-33
  81  |  0-32-68| 0-36-64| 0-40-60| 0-44-56| 0-48-52| 0-52-48| 0-57-43| 0-62-38
  88  |  0-29-71| 0-32-68| 0-36-64| 0-40-60| 0-44-56| 0-48-52| 0-52-48| 0-57-43
  94  |  2-26-72| 0-29-71| 0-32-68| 0-36-64| 0-40-60| 0-44-56| 0-48-52| 0-52-48
 100  |  7-23-70| 2-26-72| 0-29-71| 0-32-68| 0-36-64| 0-40-60| 0-44-56| 0-48-52
 106  | 12-20-68| 7-23-70| 2-26-72| 0-29-71| 0-32-68| 0-36-64| 0-40-60| 0-44-56
 113  | 16-17-67|12-20-68| 7-23-70| 2-26-72| 0-29-71| 0-32-68| 0-36-64| 0-40-60
 119  | 20-15-65|16-17-67|12-20-68| 7-23-70| 2-26-72| 0-29-71| 0-32-68| 0-36-64
 125  | 24-12-64|20-15-65|16-17-67|12-20-68| 7-23-70| 2-26-72| 0-29-71| 0-32-68
 131  | 28-10-62|24-12-64|20-15-65|16-17-67|12-20-68| 7-23-70| 2-26-72| 0-29-71
 138  | 32- 7-61|28-10-62|24-12-64|20-15-65|16-17-67|12-20-68| 7-23-70| 2-26-72
 144  | 35- 5-60|32- 7-61|28-10-62|24-12-64|20-15-65|16-17-67|12-20-68| 7-23-70
 150  | 38- 3-59|35- 5-60|32- 7-61|28-10-62|24-12-64|20-15-65|16-17-67|12-20-68
 156  | 42- 0-58|38- 3-59|35- 5-60|32- 7-61|28-10-62|24-12-64|20-15-65|16-17-67
 163  | 45- 0-55|42- 0-58|38- 3-59|35- 5-60|32- 7-61|28-10-62|24-12-64|20-15-65
 169  | 48- 0-52|45- 0-55|42- 0-58|38- 3-59|35- 5-60|32- 7-61|28-10-62|24-12-64
 175  | 50- 0-50|48- 0-52|45- 0-55|42- 0-58|38- 3-59|35- 5-60|32- 7-61|28-10-62
 181  | 53- 0-47|50- 0-50|48- 0-52|45- 0-55|42- 0-58|38- 3-59|35- 5-60|32- 7-61
 188  | 56- 0-44|53- 0-47|50- 0-50|48- 0-52|45- 0-55|42- 0-58|38- 3-59|35- 5-60
 194  | 58- 0-42|56- 0-44|53- 0-47|50- 0-50|48- 0-52|45- 0-55|42- 0-58|38- 3-59
 200  | 61- 0-39|58- 0-42|56- 0-44|53- 0-47|50- 0-50|48- 0-52|45- 0-55|42- 0-58


Source: http://www.gamefaqs.com/nes/587686-tecmo-super-bowl/faqs/44195

 

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RetroNathan

RetroNathan

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You mean these claims made at the beginning of the document are misleading?!? This sales pitch isn't backed up by his own work?!?

 

"Want to get better at Tecmo Super Bowl?  Haven't been getting anywhere?  Randy Fairfield's School of Tecmo just might be what you're looking for.  Randy Fairfield is a Tecmo Super Bowl master, winning it all in Season 5 of the HSTL as well as placing 1st in the 2012 PNW Tecmo Championship.  He is a master teacher and a self-proclaimed expert in the field of strategy.  It's time to enroll in Randy Fairfield's School of Tecmo today!  At just the low price of $10/hr, it'll easily be the best money you've ever spent!  Just ask Twister.  Enroll now and following the session, you will receive a detailed FAQ about the first eight topics mentioned.  Never before has such a vast amount of Tecmo knowledge ever been aggregated into one document!  Minimum of two hours per enrollment required."  

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10 minutes ago, RetroNathan said:

You mean these claims made at the beginning of the document are misleading?!? This sales pitch isn't backed up by his own work?!?

 

"Want to get better at Tecmo Super Bowl?  Haven't been getting anywhere?  Randy Fairfield's School of Tecmo just might be what you're looking for.  Randy Fairfield is a Tecmo Super Bowl master, winning it all in Season 5 of the HSTL as well as placing 1st in the 2012 PNW Tecmo Championship.  He is a master teacher and a self-proclaimed expert in the field of strategy.  It's time to enroll in Randy Fairfield's School of Tecmo today!  At just the low price of $10/hr, it'll easily be the best money you've ever spent!  Just ask Twister.  Enroll now and following the session, you will receive a detailed FAQ about the first eight topics mentioned.  Never before has such a vast amount of Tecmo knowledge ever been aggregated into one document!  Minimum of two hours per enrollment required."  

 

Oh my gosh. Hahahahahah I didn't download it. Dude, the School of Tecmo was amazing.

 

I would read a biography on Randy and his antics. Just sayin'... @Ol' Dirty Tecmo @kamphuna8

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8 minutes ago, gonickmontana said:

 

But do you know Leif Powers?

 

Other than his FAQ, no. 02/03 was a bit before my Knobbe.org time as I was on the UTL & PT boards back then. Was he a member here?

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